John Mauldin

  • Networks and Hierarchies

    I have a big-picture piece for you today from a big-time thinker, my good friend Niall Ferguson. This is a little bit different for Outside the Box, but then isn’t that what this letter is supposed to be? Something to make us think and to come at a problem with a little bit different viewpoint?

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 06-11-2014
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  • Can Central Planners Revive China’s Economic Miracle?

    For years, when asked whether I thought China would experience a hard landing, I would simply answer, “I don't understand China. Making a prediction would be pretending that I did, so I can’t.” The problem is that today China is the most significant macroeconomic wildcard in the global economy. To understand both the risks and the potentials for the future you have to reach some understanding of what is happening in China today. Last week we started a two-part series on what my young associate Worth Wray and I feel is the significant systemic risk that China poses to global growth.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-09-2014
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  • Breakfast with Dave

    David Rosenberg and I have been friends and colleagues for years, but he never ceases to amaze me. I mean, a 10- to 15-page letter covering every significant development in global markets, delivered to clients’ mailboxes every single morning of the work week?! Breakfast with Dave is legendary in our business.

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  • Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes

    One of the few consensus ideas that I took away from the Strategic Investment Conference is that China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of China’s troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protégé Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well-versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend to talk and write to each other a lot). While I’m on the road, Worth is once again visiting China in this week’s letter, summing up our research and contributing his own unique style and passion. I think regular TFTF readers are going to enjoy Worth’s occasional missives and will want to see more of them over time. Now, let’s turn it over to my able young Cajun friend.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-02-2014
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  • A Bubble In Complacency

    I and many others are still trying to digest the massive amount of useful and original information that was offered at last week’s Strategic Investment Conference. In this week’s letter I want to recap some of what I learned but do so in a little different manner. I find it quite instructive to listen to and read what other people have to say about their takeaways from the conference. I have come across several very good summaries and reviews that I am going to excerpt rather liberally, along with sharing some of my own thoughts.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 05-26-2014
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  • Gave & Gave … and Hay

    I am back in Dallas trying to absorb what I learned at the conference. There were a very wide range and an overwhelming number of new and newly conjoined ideas. I hope to be able to get into a few of the more prominent themes in this week’s Thoughts from the Frontline. Every year we say it can’t get any better, and every year it seems to. And those who have attended for many years have been emphatic in saying that this year’s conference was the best ever. They wonder, along with me, how we can possibly make it better next year. We’ll have to see. I have a few ideas, and I expect to solicit a few more.

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  • Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference

    Day 1 started off with the king of modern-day economists, David Rosenberg, who goes on ruffling a lot of feathers. Rather than obsessing over whether the state of the global economy is good or bad, Dave challenged us to see beyond the deflationary headwinds and focus on how things are changing at the margin. Markets move as things get better or worse; and at the margin, Dave argues, inflation pressures are building. I know this sounds odd to a lot of us who are still worried about deflation; but Dave notes that out of 140MM workers in the large, insulated US economy, roughly 40MM higher-skilled workers have the bargaining power to push wages higher and turn the inflationary dial… even as low- and medium-skilled workers see their wages decline.

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  • Are Valuations Really Too High?

    The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 05-12-2014
  • Don’t Ignore the Anecdotes

    Whenever I'm in New York I make a point of calling a number of my economist and investor friends and arranging a “dinner with interesting people.” Thankfully, Rich Yamarone is almost always at the table, because his insights into what's happening in the real economy, beyond Wall Street, are unrivaled.

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  • Is There a Biotech Bubble?

    I’m bringing you a special Outside the Box today to address a very specific question that is on many investor’s minds: is there a bubble in biotech? To answer that question, Patrick Cox, editor of Mauldin Economics’ Transformational Technology Alert, teases apart the data on stock performance in the biotech space and then goes beyond the data to show us how the unique characteristics of the sector bear on the question of bubble or no bubble.

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  • A Yen for a Mortgage

    For some time I have been saying that I was going to close the mortgage on my new apartment and then hedge it in yen. I promised to tell you the story, including what type of loan I got and how I am doing the hedge. This week I was finally able to pull the trigger. This topic will also let us re-examine why I think the Japanese yen is a screaming short. I am going to make this a shorter letter, as Amsterdam is calling, and it is a beautiful day. This is not a big think piece, but I think many of you will find it interesting. It outlines how I put my economic thinking into actual practice, and names names, if you will, of those who helped me do it.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 05-05-2014
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  • Why Are So Many Boomers Working Longer?

    There has been quite a lot of controversy in recent years around the idea that older workers – whose numbers are growing – have been taking jobs away from younger ones. Their numbers have certainly increased dramatically: the percentage of the labor force that is 55 or older grew from 29.4% in 1993 to 40.3% in 2013. And the unemployment rates of those 55 and older have dropped much faster than for younger cohorts; in fact we have seen those who are older than 55 take “market share” from the youngest. These are trends I’ve written about over the past year.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 04-30-2014
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  • The Cost of Code Red

    Too often we as investors (and economists) are like the generals who are always fighting the last war. We look at bank balance sheets (except those of Europe and China), corporate balance sheets, sovereign bond spreads and yields, and say it isn’t likely that we will repeat this mistakes which led to 2008. And I smile and say, “You are absolutely right; we are not going to repeat those mistakes. We learned our lessons. Now we are going to make entirely new mistakes.” And while the root cause of the problems, then and now, may be the same – central bank policy – the outcome will be somewhat different. But a crisis by any other name will still be uncomfortable.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 04-28-2014
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  • Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2014

    In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently overoptimistic in its projections of US growth. They simply expected QE to be more stimulative than it has been, to the tune of about 6% over the past four years – a total of about $1 trillion that never materialized.

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  • Dare to Be Great II

    I can’t tell you how many thousands of hours I have spent, over the years, thinking about, reading about, and talking about how to be a consistently successful investor; but I can tell you this: I’m still working at it. And once in a while – less frequently as the years pass, it seems – I come across investment advice that strikes me as fundamentally strong, innovative, and worth assimilating.

    I feel that way about today’s Outside the Box. It’s a client memo sent last week by Howard Marks, founder and chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. He calls it “Dare to Be Great II,” since it’s a follow-up to the famous memo by that name he wrote in 2006.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 04-16-2014
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