John Mauldin

  • Debt Be Not Proud

    Kicking the debt relief can down the road is going to require a great deal of dexterity. The Greeks haven’t helped their cause with their abysmal record of avoiding taxes and their rampant, all-too-easily-observed government corruption, including significant public overemployment.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-25-2015
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  • What Uber Could Teach the American Economy

    The twentieth century was a good time for middle America. A lot of the new manufacturing jobs paid reasonable middle-class wages. Like me, many of you grew up in those middle-class homes (though mine was decidedly on the lower end of the scale). It was a good life and a great time to grow up.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-23-2015
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  • The Eurozone: Collateral Damage

    Now we’re watching another Greek drama that could have significant unintended consequences – far beyond anything the market has priced in today. Then again, maybe not. Maybe the market is right this time. When we enter unknown territory, who knows what we will find? Fertile valleys and treasure, or deserts and devastation? Today we look at the situation in Europe and ponder what we don’t know. Greece provides a wonderful learning opportunity.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-09-2015
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  • 2015 Investment Themes

    Gary’s reason #9 for buying Treasurys is that “The odds of a near-term Fed rate hike are receding. He sees any Fed rate increase being pushed out “as the deflationary effects of the oil price plunge sink in and investors – and the Fed – realize that foreign central bank stimuli amount to Fed tightening [in relative terms].”

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-02-2015
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  • The Cult of Central Banking

    In today’s Outside the Box, good friend Ben Hunt informs us that we have entered the cult phase of the Golden Age of the Central Banker

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 01-23-2015
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  • The Swiss Release the Kraken!

    If you want evidence that central bankers play by their own rules, regardless of what they say or what conventional wisdom tells us, last week’s action by the Swiss National Bank should pretty much fill the bill. My friend Anatole Kaletsky, in a CNBC interview not long after the announcement, quipped (with a completely straight face) that just as James Bond has a license to kill, central bankers have a license to lie.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 01-20-2015
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  • A War Between Two Worlds

    The terrorist attacks in Paris have fixated the world’s attention on the contrast between competing worldviews and what constitutes acceptable behavior in modern society. What are the principles by which society should be organized and run? Who gets to set those rules, and to what standards should others who do not believe in them be held?

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 01-16-2015
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  • A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning

    It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much a guessing game as anything else (and I am bad at guessing games), I’m going to do a five-year forecast to take us to the end of the decade, which I think may be useful for longer-term investors. We will focus on events and trends that I think have a high probability, and I’ll state what I think the probabilities are for my forecasts to actually happen. While I could provide several dozen items, I think there are seven major trends that are going to sweep over the globe and that as an investor you need to have on your radar screen. You will need to approach these trends with caution, but they will also provide significant opportunities.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 01-16-2015
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  • The Burning Questions For 2015

    This week, for your Outside the Box reading, I bring you one of the more thought-provoking pieces I’ve read from Louis in some time. In Thoughts from the Frontline I have been looking at world problems we need to focus on as we enter 2015. Today, Louis also gives us a piece along these lines, called “The Burning Questions for 2015,” in which he thinks about a “Chinese Marshall Plan” (and what a stronger US dollar might do to China), Abenomics as a “sideshow,” US capital misallocation, and whether or not we should even care about Europe. I think you will find the piece well worth your time.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-19-2014
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  • Oil, Employment, and Growth

    Texas has been home to 40% of all new jobs created since June 2009. In 2013, the city of Houston had more housing starts than all of California. Much, though not all, of that growth is due directly to oil. Estimates are that 35–40% of total capital expenditure growth is related to energy. But it’s no secret that not only will energy-related capital expenditures not grow next year, they are likely to drop significantly. The news is full of stories about companies slashing their production budgets. This means lower employment, with all of the knock-on effects.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 12-17-2014
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  • How the Rising Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis

    We are concerned about the consequences of multi-speed economic growth around the world and the growing divergence between major central banks. In our opinion, if these trends persist, they likely mean (1) a major US dollar rally, (2) a rapid unwind of QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, (3) a hard slide in fragile emerging-market and commodity-exporter currencies, and (4) financial shocks capable of ushering in a new global financial crisis.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-11-2014
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  • Macroeconomics Finally Gets Interesting

    Since I began writing this letter some 15 years ago, I’ve always done an annual forecast letter, generally in the first week of January. That letter is typically the most-read issue of the year, and I spend more time thinking about it than any other letter. I typically take the last week of the year off from writing just to concentrate on my research, and I often begin to compile my reading material the first week in December, which the calendar tells us is now. Helping me this year will be my associate Worth Wray and a few members of the Mauldin Economics team, and of course my many friends and readers.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 12-10-2014
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  • The World’s Dumbest Idea

    In today’s Outside the Box the redoubtable James Montier of GMO lifts his lance to prick the underbelly of the Mighty SVM. (That’s Shareholder Value Maximization, for you newbies.) “The world’s dumbest idea” (among many candidates in the world of finance), says James, citing none other than “Neutron Jack” Welch in support.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-05-2014
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  • Is Bitcoin the Future?

    Bitcoin is a topic of discussion almost everywhere I go. My introduction to Bitcoin came when I was speaking at a gold conference in Palm Springs and three bright-eyed, bushy-tailed college students approached me with a video camera and asked for my thoughts on Bitcoin. Noting my confusion, they began to evangelistically espouse the virtues of Bitcoin and tell me how it would save us from the evils of the Federal Reserve. I kept from rolling my eyes (you do want to encourage passion in the young) and mentioned a meeting that I had to go to – at that very moment as it turned out.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 12-01-2014
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  • On the Verge of Chaos

    “Great powers and empires are, I would suggest, complex systems, made up of a very large number of interacting components that are asymmetrically organized, which means their construction more resembles a termite hill than an Egyptian pyramid. They operate somewhere between order and disorder – on “the edge of chaos,” in the phrase of the computer scientist Christopher Langton. Such systems can appear to operate quite stably for some time; they seem to be in equilibrium but are, in fact, constantly adapting. But there comes a moment when complex systems “go critical.” A very small trigger can set off a “phase transition” from a benign equilibrium to a crisis – a single grain of sand causes a whole pile to collapse, or a butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazon and brings about a hurricane in southeastern England.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 11-25-2014
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