Blogs

  • Boo! It's Halloween!

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies rebound yesterday but turnaround today.

    * CBR hikes rates!

    * BOJ announces new QE! .

    * Ding, Dong QE is Dead, for now that is! .

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-31-2014
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  • Americans Even More Pessimistic Ahead of Elections

    We cover a lot of ground in today's E-Letter. We begin with the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll which found that the Republicans have risen to an 11-point lead among “likely voters.” That’s up from only a 5-point lead a week earlier. Some 52% of likely voters want a Republican-led Congress, while 41% favor Democratic control.

    Voters’ excitement about the campaign hasn’t increased as Election Day approaches, defying the trend in recent years. The share of voters who see the country on the “wrong track” has reached the highest level ever in a midterm election year, at 65%,versus only 25% who believe the country is moving in the "right direction." With so many disillusioned voters out there, we could be in for a surprise on Election Day.

    The same WSJ/NBC poll found support rising for the use of US ground forces to fight the Islamic State terrorists. Some 35% in the new survey said military action against the group should be limited to air strikes, with 41% saying it should include combat troops as well. A month earlier, some 40% called for airstrikes only, with only 34% saying the US should use combat troops as well as air strikes.

    Recently, President Obama has been making some flowery speeches about how the economy is doing just great. To rebut the president's argument, I offer over 20 reasons why the economy is nowhere near as healthy as he claims. The American people know this, and it could have a big effect on the elections next Tuesday.

    The Fed Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow. There has been talk that in light of the recent stock market meltdown, the Fed might decide to continue its QE bond buying program a little longer. I don't buy it, especially now that the stock markets have mostly recovered. I expect the FOMC will vote to end QE tomorrow.

    On Thursday morning, we get the first look at 3Q Gross Domestic Product. The pre-report consensus for the advance GDP report is 3% (annual rate), following the 4.6% rise in the 2Q.

    In my blog on Thursday, I will analyze the Fed's latest decision on QE and share my thoughts on the GDP report. If you haven't subscribed to my free weekly blog, CLICK HERE.

    Finally, Debi and I went to New York City recently to visit the 911 Memorial and Museum. Let me just say that they were both incredible! I have more details at the end of today's letter.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-29-2014
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  • Hy Minsky For A Wednesday Chat

    In This Issue.

    * Dollar rebounds overnight.

    * RBA Dep. Dawg, fears ZIRP!.

    * Bank of Canada meets today .

    * SNB to defend cross rate.

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-22-2014
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  • The Flat Debt Society

    Since at least the beginning of 2006, the most asked question I get after a speech is “Do you think we will have inflation or deflation?” In an attempt at humor, my answer has been “Yes.” I go on to try to explain that we are in a deflationary environment, but eventually we will see inflation. When QE1 was announced, there were many pundits (none of the Keynesian variety) who immediately said the risk was for significant inflation, and there were even those (like Peter Schiff) who talked of hyperinflation and the demise of the dollar. Interest rates would rise, and US government bonds would collapse.

    ...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 10-22-2014
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  • Retirement: How To Avoid Outliving Your Savings

    With over 10,000 Baby Boomers retiring every day, a pattern that will continue for the next 20 years, retirement savings continues to be one of the most important issues of our day. With 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 – the “Baby Boom Generation” – saving enough for retirement is critically important.

    Unfortunately, study after study continues to find that most older adults have not saved nearly enough for their retirement, especially considering that we are living longer due to medical advances and taking better care of ourselves.

    Today, we’ll start by looking at some recent data on retirement saving and how this remains a huge problem for most Americans We’ll also look into why it is that many people overspend in retirement and get into trouble. Following that discussion, we will look at some ways to make sure that you don’t outlive your savings.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-21-2014
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  • Calling Into Question

    A note has been circulating among economists, calling into question the wisdom of another group of economists who wrote an open letter to the Federal Reserve a few years ago suggesting that one of the risks of their quantitative easing program was increased inflation. Since we have not seen CPI inflation, this latter group is calling upon the former to admit they were wrong, that quantitative easing does not in fact cause inflation. To no one’s surprise, Paul Krugman has written rather nastily and arrogantly about the lack of CPI inflation.

    ...
  • How Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis?

    By Casey Research The Fed claims that signs of economic stress are very low, but savvy investors feel otherwise. With geopolitical unrest expanding and central banks doing the opposite of the right things, is a currency crisis barreling toward us? See...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 10-16-2014
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  • How Over-Regulation Hurts Us - Some Eye-Popping Numbers

    Today we'll look at a recent study which quantifies just how much over-regulation hurts the US economy each year. The numbers are incredible! The US economy would be almost double what it is today were it not for the maze of costly regulations that hinder big and small businesses alike.

    Reducing harmful and unnecessary regulations should be a top national priority, but hardly anyone in Washington talks about it. Name me one national political figure that has run on scaling back government regulation in recent years. It’s hard to find one. Presidents John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were effective at limiting regulation, whereas President Obama is rated the worst of all time.

    Over-regulation has been a main contributor to the decline in the growth rate for worker productivity. Historically, worker productivity has grown by 2.5% per year. Last year, however, productivity grew by only 1.1%, and it actually declined by 3.2% in the 1Q of this year.

    According to a recent report, the government has implemented almost 90,000 new regulations over the last 20 years (an average of 4,500 per year), and many of these new regulations decrease worker productivity and increase costs for just about everything we buy.

    If that weren't bad enough, the US has seen its "economic freedom" ranking plunge from being in the top ten a few years ago all the way to #12. In fact, the US is the only developed nation to see its economic freedom ranking fall for seven straight years! When it comes to free trade, we've fallen all the way to #36. And I have even more stats on this as we go along today.

    Let's jump right into what should be a very interesting, although discouraging, letter. But we need to know these things.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-14-2014
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  • More Older Americans Are Working, But Why?

    As you know, I write frequently about the economy and specifically about the unemployment rate, as I did in my E-Letter on Tuesday. While the official unemployment rate fell to a six-year low of 5.9% in September, I emphasized that the “labor force...
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  • The Currency War Of All Currency Wars?

    In This Issue.

    * Currency rally gets turned around.

    * Fed members fire the first shots. .

    * Petrol currencies get double whammy.

    * Chuck on his soapbox again!.

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-10-2014
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  • The Broken State and How to Fix It

    By Casey Research The United States of America is not what it used to be. Unsustainable mountains of debt, continuous meddling by the government and Fed to “stimulate the economy,” and the US dollar’s dwindling status as the world’s...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 10-10-2014
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  • The world’s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago.

    My good friend Barry Ritholtz, famous for launching The Big Picture blog (and since graduating to being a regular Bloomberg columnist as well as writing a weekly column for the Washington Post), is well-known for being a contrarian. Barry is a regular dinner partner when I get to New York, and he also participates in the annual Maine fishing trip. We frequently trade information … and barbs. The word colorful affectionately comes to mind when I think of Barry (and maybe opinionated would work).

    ...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 10-08-2014
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  • Unemployment Dips Below 6%, But Incomes Stagnate

    Last Friday’s unemployment report came in better than expected. The headline unemployment rate fell more than anticipated, from 6.1% in August to 5.9% last month. The number of new jobs created last month was also better than expected at 248,000.

    Given that the unemployment rate is now below 6%, and given that 2Q GDP expanded by 4.6%, you might think the economy is finally off to the races. But what is becoming increasingly clear is that wages for most Americans have been stagnant or falling since before the Great Recession began in late 2007.

    As we will see below, this trend of stagnant income has actually been with us since the early 2000s. Without rising incomes, there’s little reason for people to feel like their financial lives are getting better or for the economy to grow at a faster rate.

    Fortunately, not all the news is bad. While the vast majority of Americans believe that we’re either still in a recession or the country is headed in the wrong direction, pessimism in the business community is lifting. Companies are investing more in capital assets. After years of sitting on their hands, companies are beginning once again to build their businesses.

    Finally, recorded versions of our recent webinars with Potomac Fund Management and YCG Investments are now available on our website at www.halbertwealth.com. Both managers explain in detail how their investment strategies work. I encourage you to watch these videos to see if their strategies are a fit for your portfolio.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-07-2014
  • The Wayback Machine Birthday Tour

    Today, in the spirit of the wisdom the Cheshire Cat offers Alice, I would ask how you can know where you are now and where you’re going if you don’t know where you came from. You and I have lived through the first nearly 14 years of this topsy-turvy new century together, and many of its details as well as its overarching themes deserve to be recalled. But rather than offering you a dry, plodding recap of recent history, I’ve come up with a different and hopefully more fun way to revisit the past decade and a half.

    ...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 10-06-2014
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  • “King Dollar” Is Back – Or Is It?

    The US Dollar has surged higher since the middle of this year. Yet most Americans pay little attention to the fluctuations in our currency, even though most of us get paid exclusively in dollars and spend exclusively in dollars. Since most of us don’t...
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