Blogs

  • Algorithmic Trading with Market Sentiment

    Algorithmic trading which is also known as automated trading has changed the way I trade and invest dramatically. As you know trading is extremely difficult to be consistently profitable in. The #1 reason individuals fail is because they struggle with...
  • Economic Outlook Dimming, Yet Fed Plans Rate Hikes

    The mainstream media was largely successful in convincing the public that the dreadful 1Q GDP number (-2.9%) was the result of the bitter winter in January and February. The media spin was that the economy would snap back strongly in the 2Q with growth of 4%, 5% or even 6%. While there were some encouraging economic reports in April, May and early June, the economy now appears to be losing momentum again.

    Predictions of 4-5% GDP growth in the 2Q have faded. A new Wall Street Journal poll last week found that forecasters on average expect 2Q GDP growth of only 3.1%, down from a 3.5% estimate a month ago. The same poll of 48 forecasters now expects the economy to grow by only 1.6% for all of 2014, down from 2.8% forecast earlier this year.

    Despite this dimming economic outlook, the media is now concerned that the Fed may begin raising interest rates sooner rather than later, and that the expected series of rate hikes will happen more rapidly than previously expected. But is there any real evidence that Janet Yellen and the Fed have changed their plans? I don’t think so. I’ll tell you why as we go along.

    Finally, we’ll round-out today’s discussion by looking at the latest Gallup poll that gauges what most Americans consider to be our biggest problems. For most of this year, Americans cited the economy as our biggest problem. However, in the latest poll a new concern has jumped to the top of the list and for good reason: Immigration/Illegal Aliens.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-22-2014
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  • Fed’s QE Ending in October: A Success or Failure?

    The Fed confirmed last week what we all had expected: it will end its massive QE bond buying program by the end of October. No surprise there. The question is, was QE a success, a failure or somewhere in between? Some argue that without QE the economy...
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  • The TRUTH about China’s Massive Gold Hoard

    By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst I don’t want to say that mainstream analysts are stupid when it comes to China’s gold habits, but I did look up how to say that word in Chinese… One report claims, for example, that gold...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 07-22-2014
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  • Was There a Global Holiday I Didn't Know About.

    In This Issue.

    * Chicago Fed

    * China and Switzerland agree

    * BRICS

    * Basis points

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 07-22-2014
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  • Hoisington Investment Management: Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2014

    This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for our Quarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury yields. That’s an important relationship, because long-term interest rates above nominal GDP growth (as they are now) tend to retard economic activity and vice versa.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-18-2014
  • U.S. Now World’s Largest Producer of Oil & Gas

    Recent reports have confirmed that the US is now the world’s largest producer of crude oil with output exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the 1Q of this year. This surpasses the daily oil production of Russia and Saudi Arabia. This is the first time in over 40 years that the US has once again become the largest producer of oil in the world – and this is despite the Obama administration’s continued ban on new drilling for oil in our coastal waterways. Oil extraction is soaring at shale formations in Texas and North Dakota as companies split rock formations believed to contain oil using high-pressure liquids, a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” This oil boom has dramatically lowered petroleum imports into America. The share of US fuel consumption met by imports is down from 60% in 2005 to 33% in 2013 and is expected to fall to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest since 1970. I will discuss the latest good news in detail as we go along today.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-15-2014
  • Rock Concerts, and How to Find On-Sale Stocks to Fuel a Rock-Star Retirement

    By Dennis Miller Have you ever wondered what really happens behind the scenes at a rock concert? My good friend Stew is a top audio engineer—you know, the guy who wears thousand-dollar headphones and stands below the stage manning dials at rock...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 07-10-2014
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  • Poverty Matters for Capitalists

    Every US recession that I can recall was preceded by a fall in long rates, and I doubt the next will be much different. As such, do not expect the next US downturn to arise from the Federal Reserve pushing rates higher, an overvalued dollar or even mal-investments. Expect it to result from a decline in the income of the working poor. Early warning signs are likely to show up in the shopping aisles of stores such as Walmart, average driving miles, and the price of houses at the cheaper end of the market. I suspect the lesson that will eventually be learnt is that in a modern industrialized economy there are few worse things a central bank can do than deliberately attack the spending power of the poor.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-10-2014
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  • Why The Fed Needs You To Sell Your Bonds

    Today I will attempt to explain why longer-term interest rates have fallen significantly this year when almost everyone expected rates to rise. This discussion focuses on the fact that there is a shortage of Treasury securities in the marketplace today, especially in maturities of 10 years or longer. The shortage is due to a combination of factors that I will discuss below.

    The bottom line is that when Treasuries are in short supply and demand is strong as it has been this year, buyers bid up the prices of these securities. When bond prices go up, yields fall. This is why the Fed would like investors to sell their bonds to help solve the shortage.

    It is doubtful that this trend of lower interest rates will continue if the economy continues to gain momentum. This should be an interesting letter for those of you who own bonds and pay attention to interest rates.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-08-2014
  • Central Bank Smackdown

    The term “smackdown” was first used by professional wrestler Dwayne Johnson (AKA The Rock) in 1997. Ten years later its use had become so ubiquitous that Merriam-Webster felt compelled to add it to their lexicon. It may be Dwayne Johnson’s enduring contribution to Western civilization, notwithstanding and apart from his roles in The Fast and The Furious movie series. All that said, it is quite the useful word for talking about confrontations that are more for show than actual physical altercations.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-07-2014
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  • Gold Option Trade – Will Gold Continue to Consolidate?

    Until recently, the world has forgotten about gold and gold futures prices it would seem. A few years ago, all we heard about was gold and silver futures making new highs on the back of the Federal Reserve’s constant money printing schemes. However...
  • Border Crisis – Why The Masses Are Coming

    In my June 17 E-Letter , I focused on the border crisis in South Texas. Today’s post is an update. The government now admits that it has seen 52,000 unaccompanied illegal children cross our border this year and expects that number to reach at least...
  • A Zero-Guilt Way to Make Holiday-Week Gains

    I love the Fourth of July. In fact, my two favorite childhood holidays were Christmas and the Fourth of July. Christmas, of course, meant presents. But believe it or not, the Fourth of July was even better. Like many Americans, our family shot off fireworks...
    Posted to Uncommon Wisdom by Tony Sagami on 07-03-2014
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  • Using Supply and Demand to Beat the Market: An Interview with Fund Manager Charles Biderman

    By Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor, The Casey Report It’s an investing strategy so simple, you’ll wonder why you didn’t think of it. Like any other market, the stock market obeys the laws of supply and demand. Reduce supply, and prices should rise. Therefore...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 07-03-2014
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