Blogs

  • Thursday’s GDP Report May Hold Big Surprises

    The next few days should be an interesting time in the markets. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today and tomorrow and will release its latest policy statement at the conclusion of the meeting. While it is not expected that the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate at tomorrow’s meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been talking hawkishly about a rate hike of late.

    Friends, business associates and clients increasingly ask me: Why is the Fed so intent on raising interest rates? The US economy is not that great, the global economy is slowing down, inflation is practically nonexistent and commodity prices are signaling deflation. So why on earth is the Fed hell-bent on raising rates when much of the world is doing just the opposite? I’ll tell you why as we go along today.

    Then on Thursday, we get the first estimate of 2Q GDP from the Commerce Department, and there is an unusually wide range of pre-report estimates. While there is broad agreement that the economy bounced back after the disappointing 1Q rate of -0.2%, some forecasters believe the 2Q estimate will be less than 1%, while others believe it will be north of 3%. That’s a huge spread! The Atlanta Fed’s rolling “GDPNow” indicates 2Q growth of 2.4%.

    Yet perhaps the most important news of this week will be the Commerce Department’s annual revisions to its GDP numbers going back several years on Thursday. While such revisions happen every year, this year’s revisions and changes are expected to be more significant than usual as the government tries to smooth-out “seasonal adjustments.” Many expect that the 1Q GDP estimate of -0.2% could be revised to a slightly positive number. This will be big news.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-28-2015
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  • Halbert Wealth Celebrates 20 Years, I Celebrate 40 Years

    This year marks the 20th anniversary of Halbert Wealth Management. 2015 also marks my 40th year in the investment business. Since many of my readers don’t know my career history, I thought I would devote this mid-summer issue of Forecasts & Trends to telling my story going back to 1975 when I first got into the investment business.

    I also want to revisit how and why I came to found Halbert Wealth Management and began searching for professional money managers in 1995, and have continued to do so ever since. If you’re an investor, I think you’ll find this story interesting.

    I’ll finish out today’s E-Letter by highlighting two of my favorite money managers, each with 19 and 20-year performance records. These two should be strong candidates for almost any well-diversified portfolio.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-22-2015
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  • The National Debt Is Over $18 Trillion, Not $13 Trillion

    In June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual “Long-Term Budget Outlook” which concluded yet again that the trajectory of US federal debt is “unsustainable” and will lead to an unprecedented debt crisis in the years ahead.

    After running $1+ trillion annual budget deficits in fiscal years 2009-2012, the deficits have come down significantly in the last few years, to $483 billion in FY2014, down from $1.3 trillion in 2011. However, the CBO warns in its latest report that the debt will start to ratchet significantly higher in a few more years if major changes are not made soon.

    The CBO estimates that “debt held by the public” will rise to 78% of Gross Domestic Product by 2025 and 103% of GDP by 2040 – assuming its long-term assumptions hold true. Several of those assumptions are dubious in my opinion. The CBO admits as much and offers an alternative fiscal scenario which shows the debt rising to over 100% of GDP much sooner.

    The problem I have always had with the CBO’s debt numbers is that they only consider the debt held by the public, which is currently apprx. $13.1 trillion. The CBO does not include the additional apprx. $5.2 trillion of so-called “intra-governmental debt” which is owed by various governmental agencies including Social Security.

    If we add the intra-governmental debt, then our national debt leaps to apprx. $18.3 trillion today, which is actually larger than our GDP of $17.7 trillion at the end of 2014. So our real debt-to-GDP ratio is already above 100%! That’s what we will talk about today. All Americans should understand what follows.

    Finally, it is widely agreed that the latest nuclear agreement with Iran is a victory for the Iranians and a dangerous setback for the West, thanks to President Obama. While I don’t have space to address it today, be sure to read the first link in SPECIAL ARTICLES below which points out 16 reasons why this was a very bad deal.

    This is just another example that illustrates how our president does not have America’s best interest at heart.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-14-2015
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  • China’s Stock Markets Imploded In June - Why?

    While the mainstream media has been obsessed with Greece over the last month or so, there has been scant attention paid to the fact that China’s high-flying stock markets unexpectedly have plummeted in June and were down around 30% through the end of last week.

    China’s exploding economy in recent years has made it the hotspot for global investors. Mutual fund families and ETFs have rushed to add exposure to the Chinese markets. China’s two major stock exchanges have seen their share indexes surge over 100% in the last year, drawing ever more investors to jump in. This includes many middle class Chinese who have never invested in anything before (many of whom have borrowed money to invest).

    Yet as noted above, in the last month, share prices on China’s stock exchanges have plummeted by around 30% as of the end of last week, to the surprise of just about everyone. The decline continued overnight (Tuesday).  Many investors don’t even know it yet since they have not seen their June account statements.

    With the world’s attention focused on Greece over the last couple of weeks, the China story has not made its way onto the media’s radars for the most part. For that reason, I will focus on the latest disturbing developments in the China story today.

    But before we get to the troubling news on China, let’s take a look at a few of the latest US economic reports – including the June unemployment report, the big jump in consumer confidence last month and the Gallup Job Creation Index which is at a new record high.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-08-2015
  • A Possible takeover target in the making!

    Headquartered in Canada, Morro Bay Resources Ltd. (TSXV-MRB) has just acquired a 51% interest in an advanced stage silver and gold project called Peñoles in the Durango Silver Belt, Mexico. The project offers up significantly more than one sees...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-07-2015
  • Core Traits of Successful Junior Exploration Stocks – Hidden Gems

    The Time Has come again to own a few very special situation resource stocks that I believe will sky rocket in value over the next few months. I have not owned any junior exploration companies since 2011 when the top was formed in the sector, and in fact...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-05-2015
  • Roberts’ Supreme Court Overstepped Its Bounds, Again

    Last week the Supreme Court rendered two controversial landmark decisions, one on Obamacare subsidies and another on same-sex marriage. Both went in favor of the liberals on the Court, and many conservatives cried foul.

    While neither decision came as a surprise to me, Supreme Court observers on both the right and the left were surprised by the way the court went about making them. In both cases, there was a great deal of liberal “interpretation” of the law, and in the same-sex marriage case, states’ rights were trampled.

    Today, I will share a few of my thoughts on the landmark decisions last week. More importantly, I will share with you summaries of the “dissents” written by conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, one of my long-time favorites on the Court. He had some powerful thoughts on last week’s decisions that I think you will appreciate.

    There was one other troubling Supreme Court decision last week that you probably didn’t hear about, but you should have. The ruling cracks down on housing discrimination, which sounds like a good thing. Yet this decision could lead to a new housing bubble and the next financial crisis, so you need to know about it. This story appears as the first link in SPECIAL ARTICLES.

    Before we jump into the Supreme Court discussion, let’s take a look at a couple of important economic reports released over the last week.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-30-2015
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  • The Die Is Cast for Financial Market

    Since the October rally ended, the SPX formed what looked like an “extended distribution phase” in the form of a rounding top. This is even more apparent on the Dow Jones Composite Index. Early June, it dropped below its 100-DMA, it slightly...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 06-29-2015
  • Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm

    Greece is again all the buzz in the media and on the commentary circuit. If you’re like me, you are suffering terminal Greece fatigue. You just want Greece and its creditors to “do something already” rather than continually coming to the end of every week with no resolution, amid finger-pointing and dire warnings from all sides about the End of All Things Europe – maybe even the world.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-29-2015
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  • Americans have no idea that the United States is on the brink

    Americans have no idea that the United States is on the brink of an economic crash. It is really not conceivable to the majority of Americans. We have been told by President Obama that we are experiencing economic growth and that the economy has been...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 06-25-2015
  • The Hot Debate Over 4% Growth In The Economy

    On June 15, former Florida governor and GOP presidential hopeful Jeb Bush formally announced his campaign with a promise that, if elected president, he would return the nation to 4% economic growth and create 19 million new jobs over the next decade.

    That’s a huge promise, especially with the economy stuck at around 2% growth, and one he may regret if he indeed becomes our next president (which I doubt). In any event, Bush’s 4% promise has sparked a spirited debate on the right and the left.

    Pundits on the left almost unanimously agree that 4% growth is a pipe dream and believe we should be satisfied with 2-2½% GDP growth. Some on the right believe that 4% growth is indeed possible and some even offered specific steps to get there. Today, I will try to summarize both positions and draw some conclusions.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-23-2015
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  • Sweet Spot for Gold Stock Investors

    There is no question that precious metals along with gold and silver mining stocks are clearly out of favor with investors. Most of these stocks are 50, 70, even 85% since the 2011 top. It has been a painful ride to the bottom for those who invest with...
  • Public Pensions: Live and Let Die

    I am not sure if my heart was ever that much of an open book, but I like to think I’m still relatively young. Nevertheless, I must admit that sometimes I want to “give in and cry.” This is especially so when I look at our nation’s public pension funds.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-22-2015
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  • The Economic Alamo

    By Jeff Thomas “And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.” – Luke 2:1, New Testament “Since the beginning of recorded history, the business of government...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 06-22-2015
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  • A Sense Of Optimism Sets In

    In This Issue.

    * Back to the negotiating table.

    * Oil trades in a tight range.

    * Chuck says a "new recession" is near..

    * Bill Murphy disses the investigation of Gold & Silver!

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 06-22-2015
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