• Someone More Negative About Japan Than Chuck?

    In This Issue.

    * More currencies on the rally tracks today.

    * Why would traders move currencies up, ahead of FOMC Minutes?.

    * Chuck looks under the hood on India's idea.

    * Koos Jansen on Chinese Gold accumulation..

    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-19-2015
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  • The World's First Cashless Society Is Here - A Totalitarian's Dream Come True

    By Nick Giambruno Central planners around the world are waging a War on Cash. In just the last few years: Italy made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal; Switzerland proposed banning cash payments in excess of 100,000 francs; Russia banned cash...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 11-19-2015
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  • Fed: Half of 25 Year-Olds Still Live With Their Parents

    A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that almost half (48.8%) of 25 year-olds around the country still live with their parents. That’s almost double the rate since 1999 when only about one-quarter (25%) of 25 year-olds still...
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  • Inspiration from the World of Sports

    One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly.

    I have never sent his letter to you as an Outside the Box, as the copies I get are clearly watermarked and copyrighted. So I was surprised and delighted to learn that the letter is free when I listened to a speech by Howard in which he encouraged everyone to get it. Unlike another hundred-billion-dollar hedge fund company that shall go unnamed, Oaktree evidently thinks that brilliance should be shared.

    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 11-19-2015
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  • The Gig Economy Is the New Normal

    An already-confusing employment environment grew even more complicated this past week. Many readers responded to my “Crime in the Jobs Report” letter with their own stories. Some confirmed what I wrote, while others disputed it. Some of the stories I read from readers who are stuck far from where they want to be in this job market were very moving. I think everyone agrees the labor outlook is uncertain. I sense a lot of nervousness, even from those who have secure jobs that pay well. In today’s letter, I’m going to respond to some of the observations and data that came in this week on employment.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 11-19-2015
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  • Economy Is Improving, Yet Most Americans Are Pessimistic

    Today we tackle several issues. We start with the fact that several new surveys show that most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and the direction the country is headed. This is despite the fact that the economy has been growing for the last five years, the unemployment rate is the lowest in seven years and the stock market has more than tripled since 2009.

    Yet despite these latest reports showing that most Americans are pessimistic about the future, the widely-followed Consumer Confidence Index has risen sharply in the last few years. Most analysts have no answer for this discrepancy. I have some specific thoughts on this contradiction, and I’ll do my best to explain it today.

    The much stronger than expected unemployment report on November 6 has sent the stock markets sharply lower in recent days, based on fears that the Fed will hike interest rates at its next policy meeting on December 15-16. I’ll offer my thoughts on what will determine the Fed’s decision next month. I wouldn’t bet money on a rate hike just yet.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-19-2015
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  • U.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant

    As long-time clients and readers are well aware, the explosion in our national debt has been one of my continuing themes over the last 30+ years, under both Republican and Democrat presidents. So today’s discussion is not a political issue, and it should worry us all.

    By the time President Obama leaves office in January 2017, the US national debt is projected to have almost doubled during his eight years in office. Put differently, Obama will have added as much to the national debt as all presidents before him combined. That is simply staggering!

    Throughout history, no major nation that has accumulated debt of more than 100% of Gross Domestic Product has ever paid it back. Instead, they have defaulted. So will we at some point if we don’t reverse course, which seems very unlikely.  As such, the question is when will the US default and what will trigger it?

    Saddest of all is the fact that, despite almost doubling the national debt over the last seven years, with much of the spending on social programs, the poverty rate in the US is near an all-time high; ditto for those living on food stamps. You would think that doubling the national debt and increasing entitlements should have dramatically lowered poverty and those living on food stamps. It didn’t.

    Over the last decade, we’ve also seen an explosion in the number of Americans who receive disability benefits. Unfortunately, Congress has watered-down the requirements to receive disability payments to the point that many able-bodied Americans are no longer working.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-11-2015
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  • Is The U.S. Economy Really In Trouble? A Debate

    Today we’ll take a closer look at last Thursday’s disappointing GDP report for the 3Q. It turns out that the report was not quite as bad as the headline 1.5% growth suggested. Following that, we’ll look at some polls which show that about two-thirds of Americans are worried about the direction the country/economy is headed.

    Along that line, I have reprinted a very interesting column from The New York Times’ senior economics writer, Neil Irwin. In a debate with himself, Mr. Irwin discusses the many pros and cons regarding the economic outlook, and suggests that maybe we worry too much. While you might not agree with him, he quotes a lot of economic stats and the article will make you think.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-04-2015
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  • China & Fed Lift-Off Dominate Market Trends - Why?

    Is it just me, or does it seem like the global markets are preoccupied with two things: China’s economy and when the Federal Reserve will raise US interest rates? Sure, there are other things going on, but these two topics seem to be driving the financial markets more than any others this year.

    In that light, we will begin today with a look at China’s latest economic report last week which received mixed reviews among economists. While China’s economy is slowing, growth is still officially near a 7% annual rate. Even if it’s only 5-6%, as many believe, a recession is not likely in China anytime soon.

    Following that discussion, I will touch briefly on the Fed’s policy meeting that began today and ends tomorrow. Most Fed-watchers, including me, don’t expect any surprises tomorrow, but you never know. On the subject of the Fed, there is increasing talk about short-term interest rates going below zero. I’ll briefly explain what that’s all about.

    While China and the Fed seem to dominate the headlines and financial market trends, there is a very important report coming out this Thursday. That’s when we get the government’s first estimate of 3Q GDP. The pre-report consensus is at 1.7% with some estimates as low as only 1.0%. If correct, that means the strong growth in the 2Q (3.9%) did not carry over during the summer.

    Finally, I will close out today’s letter by summarizing the most interesting article I read last week.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-29-2015
  • The Wall

    I generally send out two letters a week. The letter that arrives in your inbox over the weekend is Thoughts from the Frontline and is written by me. The second letter, which is called Outside the Box, generally comes in the middle of the week and is an article or essay written by someone else that I think merits your time. Quite often I disagree with the sentiment or analysis being expressed, but I find the writer makes me think about alternatives to my personally favored presuppositions. It is always good to listen to the other side of the story, especially when we are talking economics and finance and our investment portfolios!

    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 10-23-2015
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  • A Micro Cap Turning Mega Cap –Top Long Term Play

    Back in August I wrote about MGX Mineral Inc. (Symbol CSE: XMG). There has been some great progress with this company and things continue to look even better. Technical analysis and trading is my passion and getting involved in new companies which have...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 10-21-2015
  • Unhealthy, Not Wealthy, and Far from Wise

    In this week’s letter we’re going to take another look at healthcare trends. Healthcare is roughly 20% of the economy and every bit as impactful as the energy and food sectors.

    Two years ago this week I wrote “The Road to a New Medical Order” with my friend and personal physician, Dr. Mike Roizen of the Cleveland Clinic. That letter was an attempt to calmly discuss the Obamacare launch and the changes it would bring. Rereading it now, I see that we missed some points but were on target with others. (Mike is the Chief Wellness Officer and head of The Wellness Institute at the Cleveland Clinic. He is one of the premier antiaging doctors of the world. He has sold over 12 million books (including numerous bestsellers), has written 165 peer-reviewed publications, holds 14 patents, and serves on all sorts of FDA committees and boards. His awards are numerous. He has often appeared on the Oprah Winfrey Show with “Dr. Oz.”)

  • Upcoming Debt Ceiling Fight Could Get Really Ugly

    Today we will focus initially on the upcoming battle over whether to increase the US debt ceiling. The government reached the current statutory debt limit of $18.1 trillion back in March. Since then, the Treasury has been paying the nation's bills by using so-called "extraordinary measures." But the Treasury warned recently that such funding will be exhausted by November 5, and that means another debt ceiling battle will play out between now and then.

    While we've seen this movie before and know how it will ultimately end, the political battle in the coming weeks could get really ugly, especially now that House Speaker John Boehner has announced that he is stepping down soon. With a lack of leadership in the House, this year's debt limit circus could be especially unsettling for the stock and bond markets.

    Next, we turn to the question of whether a recession is likely just ahead. While the economy grew by a better than expected 3.9% in the 2Q, more and more forecasters are downgrading their outlook for the second half of this year. The number expecting a recession in the months ahead rose sharply in a survey by Bloomberg at the beginning of this month. The good news is that about 85% of economists surveyed do not expect a recession to begin this year.

    As usual these days, there's a lot to think about - so let's get started.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-14-2015
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  • Blodget on Market History

    I remember the first time I walked into Henry Blodget’s new startup, Business Insider, back in 2009. Twelve fresh-faced kids were crammed into a room about the size of my bedroom, pounding away on laptops, creating a new destination website. He took me over to a corner; we sat down in front of a few cameras; and he began shooting question after question at me, later turning the session into a series of interviews.

    You walk into his office today and it’s still packed wall-to-wall with fresh-faced kids (the older I get the younger they look), but the offices are much larger, and it seemed to me last time that there had to be at least 150 people in them. But the interviews are still quick-paced, even if they’re now conducted in a special room, with upgraded equipment.

    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 10-09-2015
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  • Americans’ Trust In Government Hits New Low

    Today we’ll look at a couple of recent Gallup polls that should be interesting, regardless of your political stripe. Americans’ trust in the government to handle domestic problems has fallen to a new all-time low of just 38%. Americans are...
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