Blogs

  • How Extreme Oversold Markets Can Be Profitable

    The trading week was starting to look as though it was going to end without any excitement. Wow, did that ever change on Friday! On Wednesday Aug 24 th , the stock market sold off to a level which I consider to be an extreme oversold condition for the...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-26-2016
  • Weapons of Economic Misdirection

    Patrick and Robert co-edit our Macro Growth & Income Alert premium service. As I’ve explained before, for regulatory reasons (since I am registered) I do not discuss specific stocks or other securities in this letter, tending instead to stick to macroeconomic and other big-picture concepts. Patrick and Robert face no such limitations, so after we discuss the macro world, I will drop off and they will talk about how to turn our macro views into real-world investment ideas. I am proud of the team we have assembled here at Mauldin Economics and appreciate the hard work and experience they bring to our readers.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 08-26-2016
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  • Weekend Edition: How to Profit From These Massive, Brexit-Induced Trends

    By Justin Spittler Editor's note : Yesterday , Casey Research founder Doug Casey shared his thoughts on the Brexit. Today, in part two, he lays out the major trends the Brexit will accelerate…and explains how you can set yourself up to profit...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 08-26-2016
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  • Fed Continues to Overstate the Growth of the Economy – Why?

    Two prominent Fed officials gave major speeches over the last week, and both suggested that the US economy will surge in the second half of this year. Both indicated that this newfound growth in the previously moribund economy means the Fed will raise...
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  • Waiting On Janet.

    In This Issue.

    * Another "no movement" day.

    * Traders await Janet Yellen's speech .

    * German IFO stumbles post BREXIT.

    * China issues warning on steel production .

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 08-26-2016
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  • Stock Market Is Crazy and Crazy Means Opportunity!

    The SPX has completed its’ “Broadening Topping Pattern” …the next trend is DOWNWARDS! The current pattern is suggesting that a significant top is at hand. I fully believe both in patterns and indicators and right now the current...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-25-2016
  • The World’s Monetary System Is Broken & Costing Overseas Business

    Low and negative yields mean that no one has the confidence to invest in real capital projects. Investors would much rather lose money over a 10-year horizon than invest in building dams, repairing pipes, creating better grids, starting new businesses...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-24-2016
  • US Worker Productivity In Serious Decline -- The Reasons Why

    The Labor Department reported earlier this month that US worker productivity, which measures hourly worker output, declined for the third consecutive quarter at the end of June, the worst showing since the late 1970s. The productivity rate also declined for the 12 months ended June. This news came as a surprise to most forecasters who were sure that the productivity rate would have snapped back strongly in the 2Q.

    There is near-universal agreement among economists that worker productivity is the most important determinant in whether our incomes and living standards rise or fall over the years. If productivity continues to fall, the economy will be hamstrung, incomes will stagnate and our living standards will deteriorate in the years ahead.

    Interestingly, there is not near-universal agreement on what is causing the current extended period of falling productivity, nor what should be done to reverse this critical trend. Today I will devote this space to explaining why productivity is moving in the wrong direction and what should, and should not, be done about it.

    Given the enormous impact productivity has on our economy, our incomes and our living standards, I would hope that more Americans understand this issue better before they head to the polls in what will be the most critical presidential election in many years. Therefore, feel free to forward today’s E-Letter to as many people as you see fit.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 08-23-2016
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  • How To Spot An Oversold Stock Market

    All traders have found their own mix of technical analysis indicators and price action which they feel provides them with a good feel for when the stock market is oversold and overbought. Let’s face it, as traders, we see the market is a different...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-22-2016
  • Will The Bubble Pop Regardless If the Fed Doesn't Raise Rates?

    The current overall SPX pattern is a broadening top, which is usually a very reliable pattern. The market continues to look as though it wants to go even lower. The momentum shift, which I have been expecting, has been slow to start, however one should...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-21-2016
  • The Globalization Disconnect

    In today’s Outside the Box, Stephen Roach, former chairman and chief economist of Morgan Stanley Asia and now a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs, tackles the issue of widespread and growing public dissatisfaction – and not just in the US – with globalization.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 08-18-2016
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  • Silver Miners Will Outperform In the Forthcoming Bull Run

    Despite the expectations of a rate hike by the Fed in December of 2016, silver has remained close to its highs (as shown in the chart below). After a stellar run, the white metal is consolidating near its highs, while anticipating its next imminent breakout...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-17-2016
  • Clinton & Trump Unveil Very Different Economic Plans

    Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York billionaire Donald Trump both announced their major plans for the economy last week, if elected president in November. As you might expect, the two plans are very different. I will summarize both as we go along today, and you can draw your own conclusions.

    Before we get to that discussion, I want to bring to your attention the fact that the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a significant improvement in the US economy for the current 3Q. As you may recall, the Atlanta Fed produces a real-time estimate of the US economy which is called “GDPNow.” As of last Friday, the GDPNow is forecasting a jump to 3.5% in GDP in the 3Q.

    Keep in mind that US GDP was only 0.8% in the 1Q and 1.2% in the 2Q. A strong jump to 3.5% in the 3Q would be almost triple the anemic 1.2% in the 2Q. The obvious question is, what is the Fed seeing so far in this July to September quarter that is making it so confident? That’s what we’ll talk about just below.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 08-17-2016
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  • THE FINANCIAL WINTER IS NEARING

    Nature functions in cycles. Each 24-hour period can be divided into smaller cycles of morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The whole year can be divided into seasonal cycles. Similarly, one’s life can also be divided into cycles. Cycles are abundant...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-16-2016
  • Its The Season For Gold, Silver & Mining Stocks

    My analysis indicates that gold will be implemented in order to protect ‘global purchasing power’ and to minimize losses during our upcoming periods of ‘market shock’. It serves as a high-quality, liquid asset to be used whereas...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 08-12-2016
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