Blogs

  • Don’t Buy The SPX Hope Rally!

    All bubbles burst; the question is when? Quantitative Easing (QE) is much like an addiction. One needs more and more to get the initial effect, however, this becomes an asymptotic result, whereas, eventually, one needs an infinite amount that will no...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-26-2016
  • The Bond Market: Beware of Junkyard Dogs

    It should come as no surprise that credit spreads are shrinking between what in theory are risk-free investments and other investments. Retirees and other investors are reaching farther and farther for yield, piling into all sorts of increasingly risky investments.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-25-2016
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  • Large investors become major buyers of...

    The world has woken up to the fact that the Central Banks are a curse, rather than a boom to the global economies, and their time left is slowly coming to an end because of new technologies and currencies I talked about last week. People are starting...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-22-2016
  • Insight from Greed, Volatility, and Put/Call Ratio

    I was recently looking at the CNN money website where they post this fear & green index. I caught my attention because many other aspects of the market are now also showing signs an imminent correction in the stock market. This analysis is a contrarians...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-21-2016
  • "How America Lost Its Mojo" - Some Troubling Trends

    In my business, I read a lot more than the average American, in large part due to my “speed-reading” training in college. Most of what I read is about the economy, markets, financial matters, world events and yes, politics among other topics.

    I especially enjoy reading well-written articles on shifting demographic trends in the US and around the globe, which give us insights regarding what the country and the world might look like in 10-20 years. I recently read just such an article on the rapidly changing demographics in America and their long-term implications.

    After thinking about it for several weeks, I decided to reprint it for you today. I think you will find it very interesting.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-19-2016
  • Keep an eye on ‘Bitcoin’ as the next ‘financial crisis’ starts!

    ‘Bitcoin’ is on a tear away rally. Its’ performance, over the last year, has been outstanding and it has outperformed most ‘asset classes’, by a wide margin. It is probably the only asset class which beats out both gold and...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-18-2016
  • When the Future Becomes Today

    First, I want to express my shock and quiet despair over the events in Dallas this weekend. The shock comes from this actually happening in Dallas. If anything, Dallas police are accommodating and work with the community as well as any police force in the country. But this event is a reminder that tragedies don’t just happen somewhere else. All it takes is one or two lone actors, and the world of somewhere else lands on your doorstep. This sad spectacle is part and parcel of what we will be discussing today: a world where common sense and reasonable discourse are breaking down, leaving us with social outcomes that only a few years ago would have seemed impossible. As Buffalo Springfield sang, “There’s something happening here; what it is ain’t exactly clear.”

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-12-2016
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  • Bill Gross at His Best

    I normally read Bill Gross’s monthly letter the day of or shortly after when it comes out. For whatever reason, I didn’t get around to his early June letter until a few days ago. It has been a few years since I have sent his letter out as your Outside the Box for the week, but I thought this one was so good that I needed to send it on. As it turns out, I went this morning to get it from his website and found that his July letter is out, and it is just as good. Since he writes relatively short letters, I’m going to use both of them.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-12-2016
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  • Big Ben Visits Japan!

    * LCMI prints negative for 6th consecutive month!

    * U.K. will have new PM by tomorrow.

    * BOA calls for higher prices in Gold & Silver!.

    * Route 66 to be repaved with solar panels!.

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 07-12-2016
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  • Treasury Yields Hit Record Lows – Global Flight To Safety

    It is so, so tempting to write about Hillary Clinton’s latest news today that I can hardly stand it. We had Bill Clinton’s “chance” meeting with Attorney General Loretta Lynch at the Phoenix airport last Thursday. Then the FBI...
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  • Stocks At Record High, Treasuries At Record Low - A Rarity

    Stocks as measured by the S&P 500 and the Dow have cruised to new record highs over the last week. Treasury yields on 10-year notes and 30-year bonds moved to all-time record lows last week. Historically, these two things rarely happen at the same time. In fact, the S&P 500 has hit a record high when the 10-year Treasury note yield was below 2% only once in the last 40 years.

    The fact that stocks are at new highs and Treasury yields are at new lows is largely due to red-hot foreign demand for US securities. There are continued worries about the UK and Europe in the wake of "Brexit" and rising concerns about China's economy. With negative interest rates spreading around the world, foreign investors are gobbling up Treasuries which still have positive yields and adding US equities as well. Some say this is the "New Normal." But is it?

    That's what we'll talk about today.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-12-2016
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  • Stock market, leading sectors, and the price of coffee

    It was a relatively dull session yesterday (Monday July 11th) with stocks gapping higher only to trade sideways up till now. As I talked about in the morning’s video I expected stocks to grind higher, and for vix ETF to keep moving lower for another...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-12-2016
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  • VIX & SP500 Comparison of 2008 Market Top

    Today I like to share my thoughts about the S&P 500 index, the volatility index, and what I believe will be the trigger/event which sends stock markets around the world to new multi-year lows. While the charts shown here are very simple there is a...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-11-2016
  • Deutsche Bank or Dumb Bank?

    Deutsche bank (DBK) shares dropped to fresh new lows with the various news announcements, as well as a feeling that Germany will not be capable of bailing out the bank. The imminent outcome for DBK is ‘bankruptcy’ while the world will have...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 07-08-2016
  • Is "Brexit" The Beginning of the End For European Union?

    Just about everywhere I go lately people ask me what I think about “BREXIT” and the ramifications it will have for Great Britain, Europe and even the United States. My standard answer since the vote on June 23 is that I don’t think about it much.

    The reason is that, other than the vote itself wherein the “Leave” crowd won 52%-48% over the “Remain” crowd, nothing else has happened to make Brexit the law of the land, and may not happen for months to come. British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the day after the vote didn’t go his way, but offered to stay on until October if need be to find a replacement.

    In order to officially initiate its withdrawal from the European Union, Britain must invoke “Article 50” of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty with the EU, and it now looks likely that such a notification won’t happen until after the new Prime Minister is in office. And then withdrawal from the EU is a two-year process after that.

    I last wrote about Brexit on Thursday, June 23, the day of the referendum, in my Blog. At that time, I noted that some of the final polls showed a slim lead for the Leave crowd. I also noted that the Leave crowd in Britain is part of a “global anti-establishment movement” that is growing around the world – which has brought us the likes of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

    While the Brexit outcome roiled the global equity markets for the first couple of days following the vote, some of those losses have been recovered. Frankly, I expect Brexit will fall out of the headlines soon, if it hasn’t already, and the media attention for the rest of this month will be on the GOP convention on July 18-21 and the Democratic convention on July 25-28.

    Nevertheless, I will give you my thoughts and those from others I read on Brexit as we go along today. Just keep in mind that we don’t have any idea when Brexit will happen, under what terms it will happen or even if it will happen at all.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-06-2016
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