Blogs

  • Roberts’ Supreme Court Overstepped Its Bounds, Again

    Last week the Supreme Court rendered two controversial landmark decisions, one on Obamacare subsidies and another on same-sex marriage. Both went in favor of the liberals on the Court, and many conservatives cried foul.

    While neither decision came as a surprise to me, Supreme Court observers on both the right and the left were surprised by the way the court went about making them. In both cases, there was a great deal of liberal “interpretation” of the law, and in the same-sex marriage case, states’ rights were trampled.

    Today, I will share a few of my thoughts on the landmark decisions last week. More importantly, I will share with you summaries of the “dissents” written by conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, one of my long-time favorites on the Court. He had some powerful thoughts on last week’s decisions that I think you will appreciate.

    There was one other troubling Supreme Court decision last week that you probably didn’t hear about, but you should have. The ruling cracks down on housing discrimination, which sounds like a good thing. Yet this decision could lead to a new housing bubble and the next financial crisis, so you need to know about it. This story appears as the first link in SPECIAL ARTICLES.

    Before we jump into the Supreme Court discussion, let’s take a look at a couple of important economic reports released over the last week.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-30-2015
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  • The Die Is Cast for Financial Market

    Since the October rally ended, the SPX formed what looked like an “extended distribution phase” in the form of a rounding top. This is even more apparent on the Dow Jones Composite Index. Early June, it dropped below its 100-DMA, it slightly...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 06-29-2015
  • Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm

    Greece is again all the buzz in the media and on the commentary circuit. If you’re like me, you are suffering terminal Greece fatigue. You just want Greece and its creditors to “do something already” rather than continually coming to the end of every week with no resolution, amid finger-pointing and dire warnings from all sides about the End of All Things Europe – maybe even the world.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-29-2015
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  • Americans have no idea that the United States is on the brink

    Americans have no idea that the United States is on the brink of an economic crash. It is really not conceivable to the majority of Americans. We have been told by President Obama that we are experiencing economic growth and that the economy has been...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 06-25-2015
  • The Hot Debate Over 4% Growth In The Economy

    On June 15, former Florida governor and GOP presidential hopeful Jeb Bush formally announced his campaign with a promise that, if elected president, he would return the nation to 4% economic growth and create 19 million new jobs over the next decade.

    That’s a huge promise, especially with the economy stuck at around 2% growth, and one he may regret if he indeed becomes our next president (which I doubt). In any event, Bush’s 4% promise has sparked a spirited debate on the right and the left.

    Pundits on the left almost unanimously agree that 4% growth is a pipe dream and believe we should be satisfied with 2-2½% GDP growth. Some on the right believe that 4% growth is indeed possible and some even offered specific steps to get there. Today, I will try to summarize both positions and draw some conclusions.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-23-2015
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  • Sweet Spot for Gold Stock Investors

    There is no question that precious metals along with gold and silver mining stocks are clearly out of favor with investors. Most of these stocks are 50, 70, even 85% since the 2011 top. It has been a painful ride to the bottom for those who invest with...
  • Public Pensions: Live and Let Die

    I am not sure if my heart was ever that much of an open book, but I like to think I’m still relatively young. Nevertheless, I must admit that sometimes I want to “give in and cry.” This is especially so when I look at our nation’s public pension funds.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-22-2015
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  • The Economic Alamo

    By Jeff Thomas “And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.” – Luke 2:1, New Testament “Since the beginning of recorded history, the business of government...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 06-22-2015
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  • A Sense Of Optimism Sets In

    In This Issue.

    * Back to the negotiating table.

    * Oil trades in a tight range.

    * Chuck says a "new recession" is near..

    * Bill Murphy disses the investigation of Gold & Silver!

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 06-22-2015
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  • Texas Gold/Bullion Depository – The First of Its Kind

    Texas wants to repatriate its gold held in the Federal Reserve vault in New York. Other states may feel the same way. It remains to be seen if President Obama’s heavy-handed Justice Department will try to intervene to stop it. On Friday, Texas Governor...
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  • The Importance of RMB Internationalization

    For the last four years, I have been highlighting the idea that when Beijing floats the renminbi, the  currency may go down, not up, which is the exact opposite of what those who accuse China of currency manipulation believe would happen. I had this very argument with Lindsey Graham two weeks ago at a small dinner in New York, where I listened politely to his positions on a variety of topics until he began talking about currency manipulation. Given that the preceding topic had been the Federal Reserve, and considering that the rest of the world considers the quantitative easing that the Fed did to be the epitome of currency manipulation, I found that I couldn’t sit still; and we engaged in a very, let’s call it intense, back and forth. To the Senator’s credit, and my surprise, after dinner he came over and asked if I would visit him in New York, which is now on my short list of things to do.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 06-22-2015
  • Stock Markets Have Stalled Since March - Now What?

    The major stock indexes (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) have gone virtually sideways since March. Yes, there was the brief day or two in May when all three indexes recorded new record highs, but then promptly sold off sharply. This suggests that there is a lot of overhead resistance just above current levels. As a result, the natives are getting restless! And for good reason. Today I have reprinted a very good report from a seasoned stock market analyst who points to a number of key factors that are weighing on the stock market presently, factors that most investors pay little or no attention to. His point is that it may be very difficult for the stock markets to break out of the recent trading range to the upside. For that reason, we could be headed for a serious downward correction - the likes of which we haven't seen since September/October of last year or worse. I think you'll find his analysis very interesting. Following that discussion, I will give you my latest thoughts on when the Fed will raise interest rates - what with so much attention focused on that question. And there's a possible new twist as to how the Fed may go about announcing and then actually implementing the first rate hike that you'll find interesting (or maybe too cute). Finally, the World Bank released its mid-year economic projections last week and downgraded its 2015 forecast for the US. No surprise there, at least not for me and my readers. What was most interesting was that the World Bank joined the IMF in asking the Fed not to rai

    The major stock indexes (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) have gone virtually sideways since March. Yes, there was the brief day or two in May when all three indexes recorded new record highs, but then promptly sold off sharply. This suggests that there is a lot of overhead resistance just above current levels. As a result, the natives are getting restless! And for good reason.

    Today I have reprinted a very good report from a seasoned stock market analyst who points to a number of key factors that are weighing on the stock market presently, factors that most investors pay little or no attention to. His point is that it may be very difficult for the stock markets to break out of the recent trading range to the upside. For that reason, we could be headed for a serious downward correction - the likes of which we haven't seen since September/October of last year or worse. I think you'll find his analysis very interesting.

    Following that discussion, I will give you my latest thoughts on when the Fed will raise interest rates - what with so much attention focused on that question. And there's a possible new twist as to how the Fed may go about announcing and then actually implementing the first rate hike that you'll find interesting (or maybe too cute).

    Finally, the World Bank released its mid-year economic projections last week and downgraded its 2015 forecast for the US. No surprise there, at least not for me and my readers. What was most interesting was that the World Bank joined the IMF in asking the Fed not to raise interest rates until sometime next year. That raises the question: Is Janet Yellen listening?

    se interest rates until sometime next year. That raises the question: Is Janet Yellen listening?

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-16-2015
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  • The People’s Republic of Debt

    The economic miracle that is China is unprecedented in human history. There has simply been nothing like it. Deng Xiaoping took control of the nation in the late ’70s and propelled it into the 21st century. But now the story is changing. Those who think that all progression is linear are in for a rude awakening if they are betting on China to unfold in the future as it has in the past.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-15-2015
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  • Cleaning Out the Attic

    Three weeks ago I co-authored an op-ed for the Investor’s Business Daily with Stephen Moore, founder of the Club for Growth and former Wall Street Journal editorial board member, currently working with the Heritage Foundation. Our goal was to present a simple outline of the policies we need to pursue as a country in order to get us back to 3–4% annual GDP growth. As we note in the op-ed, Stephen and I have been engaging with a number of presidential candidates and with other economists around the topic of growth.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-10-2015
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  • IMF Urges Fed Not To Raise Interest Rates Until 2016

    On Thursday of last week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for US economic growth this year from 3.1% earlier in the year to only 2.5% now. That is not surprising in light of the mainly disappointing economic reports we’ve seen recently, and other forecasters have been revising their estimates lower as well.

    Yet in addition to the downwardly revised growth forecast, the new IMF report openly called on the Federal Reserve to delay any interest rate hike until sometime next year. In all of my years of Fed-watching, I don’t remember the IMF ever trying to influence Fed monetary policy. This is an unusual development, and it will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

    The question is whether Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her fellow members of the policy setting Committee pay much, if any, attention to what the IMF has to say. We all know that the Fed really wants to raise short-term rates to give it some ammunition for the next recession.

    This apparent disagreement is between two of the most powerful women in the world – Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen. This issue will be our main topic today.

    But as we often do, let’s first take a look at Friday’s stronger than expected unemployment report for May and the latest disappointing report on consumer spending.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 06-09-2015
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