Blogs

  • In Three to Five Years Gold Will Be Priceless

    Over the next few years as debt, currencies and countries start to fall apart individuals will be looking to place their money where it will hold its value and buying power during times of extreme uncertainty. If you eliminate fiat currencies which are...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 04-22-2015
  • Unsound Banking: Why Most of the World's Banks Are Headed for Collapse

    By Doug Casey You’re likely thinking that a discussion of “sound banking” will be a bit boring. Well, banking should be boring. And we’re sure officials at central banks all over the world today—many of whom have trouble...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 04-21-2015
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  • Over Half of Americans Don’t Own Stocks or Equity Funds

    At a time when the US stock market is still flirting with record highs, more than half of Americans are sitting on the sidelines, with nothing invested in stocks, equity mutual funds or ETFs. A Bankrate.com survey released last Thursday found that 52...
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  • No News Is Good News for U.S. Economy / Dollar.

    In This Issue.

    * German ZEW is weak again.

    * Swedish Unemployment drops to 8%

    * Canada prints fiscal budget today.

    * RBA's minutes are dovish, and so is Stevens .

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 04-21-2015
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  • Has The US Dollar Topped Out, Or Headed Much Higher?

    The US dollar’s value has been on a tear since last summer, with the greenback’s value surging more than 20% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Reasons for the dollar’s sudden strong advance vary widely, but include the following among others:

    The US economy is faring better than most other developed economies, and foreign investors have to buy dollars in order to participate.
    The Fed is expected to raise short-term interest rates this year, and higher rates historically lead to a stronger currency.
    US stocks and bonds have been the leaders in market returns in recent years, and foreign investors continue to flock to them, creating more demand for dollars.
    Global tensions and concerns are rising in many parts of the world, and foreign investors are seeking a safe-haven in which to park their money.
    Basically, the US is the least worst of a bad lot when it comes to where international investors want to stash their money.
    For these reasons and others, international capital has been flowing into the US at a near-record rate since last summer. This has definitely boosted the value of the US dollar since last July and may continue to do so. But questions remain.

    The first question is whether the strong rise in the US dollar will continue? There are some compelling arguments that it will, as I will discuss below. Yet in March of this year, the US dollar turned lower. So the next question is, whether the recent downturn in the US dollar is a real change of trend? I’ll offer an opinion as we go along.

    Following that discussion, we will delve into the latest data on who pays income taxes and who doesn’t. The numbers may surprise you. Despite the fact that the top 20% of income earners pay almost 84% of all income taxes, the Democrats want to raise income taxes on high income earners and corporations. What else is new?

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 04-21-2015
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  • Safe Haven Play – It Is That Time Again!

    Each year traders try to navigate their way through the financial market and turn a profit. But this is difficult. The stock market provides market participants with several opportunities each. With all the holidays and climate changes the market as a...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 04-19-2015
  • Gold Price: Year 2000 All Over Again – How Will You Play It This Time?

    Recently business and financial guru Mark Cuban wrote an article about why this tech bubble is going to be worse than the tech bubble of 2000. This made me take another look at the long term charts again, but instead of looking up the NASDAQ or the tech...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 04-16-2015
  • True Investments VS Speculative in Gold & Oil

    A couple of weeks ago I was listening to an hour-long segment on CNBC with Warren Buffett. He brought up a great point about the type of investments he prefers and the difference between an investment versus a speculative trade. I feel what he mentioned...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 04-13-2015
  • Logical 4 Month Market Forecast – Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds

    Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month...
  • Why The US Unemployment Rate May Be Wrong

    Last Friday’s unemployment report for March was a stunner, no doubt about it. After 12 consecutive months of new job creation above 200,000 per month, the Labor Department reported that only a meager 126,000 new jobs were created in March.

    Theories abound as to the cause of the huge drop-off in new jobs last month, but the default reason cited, once again this year, is the severe winter weather. While bitter winter weather is a factor, questions arise as to whether this could be a sign of worse things to come in the US economy.

    We will focus today on the latest disappointing unemployment report and examine what the internals of the latest missive might mean for the economy, and for the Fed’s timing of its first interest rate hike.

    Following that discussion, I want to shift our sights to a new study which suggests that the government’s official unemployment rate, currently 5.5% is significantly lower than reality. This new study concludes that the real unemployment rate in America today is somewhere between 7% and 9% or even higher. I think you’ll find this discussion compelling.

    But before we get to today’s main topic on the latest unemployment report, I want to briefly share with you a new and disturbing economic forecast from none other than the Federal Reserve itself.

    At the end of March, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released a new forecast for US GDP growth of 0.0% for the 1Q. This surprising new forecast from the Fed itself has sparked a spirited new debate on the subject of where the US economy is headed this year.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 04-07-2015
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  • Do Equities Just Correct or Collapse in 2015?

    The question on everybody’s mind for 2015 is when will the stock market start to correct in value and will it turn into a 50+% collapse? Over the last 15 years investors has been through a lot in terms of market volatility. From the 2000 tech bubble...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 04-01-2015
  • On The Economy, The Environment & Income Tax Time

    The combination of topics for today’s E-Letter might seem unusual, and it is – the economy, the environment and income tax time. How do those fit together? They don’t really, but I think you will find today’s discussion on each to be interesting.

    The economy has been in a slow recovery for the past five-and-a- half years. It’s the weakest post-recession rebound in generations. The Commerce Department’s latest revision of 4Q GDP shows that nothing much has changed. Meanwhile, winter economic reports for retail sales, manufacturing and capital investment point to a weaker 1Q, perhaps only around 1% growth in GDP.

    Today we will look at several recent economic reports, most of which were (you guessed it, unless you didn’t read last week’s E-letter) disappointing. That includes last week’s final Gross Domestic Product report for the 4Q, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index and February durable goods orders and housing starts.

    I also want to share with you some of the latest interesting polling results from Rasmussen Reports that I think you’ll find very interesting, especially regarding how most Americans feel about the IRS – given that income tax day is just two weeks away.

    But before we get to those topics, I want to share with you the findings of a couple of new Gallup polls which gauge Americans’ concerns about the environment and global warming. With so much alarmist rhetoric out there, you would think that the environment would be near the top of most Americans’ worry list. Let’s take a look.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 03-31-2015
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  • Living in a Free-Lunch World

    The world has been on a debt binge, increasing total global debt more in the last seven years following the financial crisis than in the remarkable global boom of the previous seven years (2000-2007)! This explosion of debt has occurred in all 22 “advanced” economies, often increasing the debt level by more than 50% of GDP. Consumer debt has increased in all but four countries: the US, the UK, Spain, and Ireland (what these four have in common: housing bubbles). Alarmingly, China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. The recent report from the McKinsey Institute, cited above, says that six countries have reached levels of unsustainable debt that will require nonconventional methods to reduce it (methods otherwise known as defaulting, monetization; whatever you want to call those measures, they amount to real pain for the debtors, who are in many cases those least able to bear that pain).

    ...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 03-30-2015
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  • Will You Survive The Next Bear Market?

    Since the beginning of January 2014 stocks have shown signs of institutional selling. This can be seen in the small capitalization stocks index the Russell 2000. This group of stocks generally leads the S&P 500. Most bull market tops in the S&P...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 03-27-2015
  • US Dollar: American Phoenix

    Lastweek the FOMC essentially removed forward guidance and placed all options back on the table, and at the end of the day they’ve opened the door for further tightening. As Yellen recently explained in advance, the removal of the word patience from the Fed’s guidance amounts to fair warning to the rest of the world’s central banks: an interest rate hike is on the horizon. Govern your actions accordingly. (My personal guess, for those interested, is September, with the Fed proceeding exceedingly slowly and cautiously thereafter.)

    ...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 03-26-2015
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