Blogs

  • Notes on Russia

    For today’s Outside the Box we have two pieces that deliver deeper insights into the situation with Russia and Putin. The first is from my good friend Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group and author of Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World. You probably caught my mention of Ian’s presentation at the institutional fund manager conference where we both spoke last weekend. He had some unsettling things to say about Russia; and so when he followed up with an email to me on Monday, I asked if he’d let me share the section on Russia with you. Understand, Ian is connected, and so what you’re about to be treated to here is analysis from way inside. (He’ll be presenting at our Strategic Investment Conference again next April, too.)

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 11-21-2014
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  • Global Economy Worsening, But America is on Top

    With President Obama making controversial moves on several fronts this month, it is tempting to go all politics this week. The president is threatening to grant defacto amnesty to five or six million illegal aliens, via Executive Order, even though he knows this is unpopular among the American people. It’s as if he’s in full denial regarding the landslide midterm election results.

    In addition, he signed a controversial climate deal with China that will hurt the US economy and allows China to continue building more coal-fired power plants and increase emissions annually until 2030. Obama and the media hailed it as one of his landmark accomplishments. It wasn’t.

    At the Asian summit he attended last week, Mr. Obama pledged to give $3 billion of US taxpayer money to emerging countries to help them work toward clean energy and tackle climate change. Hopefully, Congress will block that pledge.

    And if you missed it, Obama announced last week that he wants the federal government to regulate the Internet. That would be a disaster! More details as we go along today.

    But rather than devote the entire E-Letter to politics, let’s start with a new report on the slowing global economy. According to the latest survey from Bloomberg, the global economy is in the worst position in two years. Fears of deflation are growing in Europe and elsewhere.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-18-2014
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  • What If Silicon Valley Moved to Puerto Rico?

    By Gerald Nowotny The tax benefits of Puerto Rican residency gained some attention and notoriety when hedge fund billionaire John Paulson went to Puerto Rico to “kick the tires.” He did not become a Puerto Rican resident (not yet, at least...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 11-17-2014
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  • The Last Argument of Central Banks

    For a central banker, deflation is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Death, Famine, Disease, and Deflation. (We will address later in this letter why War, in the form of a currency war, is not in a central banker’s Apocalypse mix.) It is helpful to understand that, before a person is allowed to join the staff or board of a central bank, he or she is taken into a back room and given DNA replacement therapy, inserting a gene that is viscerally opposed to deflation. Of course, in fairness, it must be noted that central bankers don’t like high inflation, either (although, looking around the world, we see that the definition of high inflation can vary). In the developed world, 2% inflation seems to be the common goal. You wouldn’t think that 2% a year is a significant change in the overall price structure, but the panic among economists that would ensue with a 2% price deflation would border on hysteria.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 11-17-2014
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  • The Return of the Dollar

    Two years ago, my friend Mohamed El-Erian and I were on the stage at my Strategic Investment Conference. Naturally we were discussing currencies in the global economy, and I asked him about currency wars. He smiled and said to me, “John, we don’t talk about currency wars in polite circles. More like currency disagreements” (or some word to that effect).

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 11-17-2014
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  • What Midterm Election Results Mean for the Fed

    One likely result of the GOP sweep of the midterm elections on November 4 is increased scrutiny of the Federal Reserve from the new Republican majority in both chambers of Congress. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who has at times been critical of the Fed, is...
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  • Surprise! (NOT!) Japan Reenters A Recession.

    In This Issue.

    * U.S. Retail Sales disappoint, reversing dollar trade.

    * Sydney Australia is named a renminbi hub!

    * WGC says India is #1 Gold Consumer again.

    * U.S. Data Cupboard returns this week!

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 11-17-2014
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  • Preventing Taxpaying Milk Cows from Seeking Greener Pastures

    By Nick Giambruno It’s undeniable that the window of opportunity is getting smaller… especially when you connect all the dots and see the big picture. To help connect those dots, it’s important to understand the things that make being...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 11-14-2014
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  • Retirement Saving Crisis is Worse Than We Thought

    Each year Wells Fargo & Company conducts a survey of middle-class Americans of various ages to see how they are faring with saving for retirement. The results of the 2014 survey were just made public late last month. I will summarize them for you below. Let me warn you in advance – they are not pretty!

    But first, let’s take a look at last Friday’s better than expected October unemployment report. The headline unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, the lowest level in almost six years. So far in 2014, new jobs are being added at the fastest pace since 1999. Best of all, the employment rate for young people ages 25-34 rose to the highest level since late 2008.

    To all of our brave men and women who have served in our Armed Forces, we thank you and wish you a Happy Veterans Day!

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 11-11-2014
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  • Consumer Confidence Hit a 7-Year High in October... But

    The two most widely-followed indicators of consumer confidence jumped to the highest levels in seven years last week. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 94.5 in October, the strongest reading since October 2007 before the economy entered the Great Recession.

    Then on Friday, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 84.6 in September to 86.9 in October, the highest level since July 2007. Respondents to both surveys cited expectations of better economic growth and job gains in the coming months, along with falling gasoline prices, as reasons for their optimism.

    Yet at the same time, the latest polls on the Direction of the Country show that a whopping 66.0% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with only 27.8% who believe the nation is moving in the right direction. There is a huge disconnect between these measures of consumer confidence versus how Americans feel about the direction the country is headed. Today I’ll take a shot at trying to explain how and why this dichotomy exists.

    Before we get to that discussion, let’s take a closer look at last Thursday’s advance report on 3Q Gross Domestic Product which came in at a better than expected 3.5%. I also have some further thoughts on the Fed's policy meeting last week and the decision to end its massive quantitative easing program.

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  • Boo! It's Halloween!

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies rebound yesterday but turnaround today.

    * CBR hikes rates!

    * BOJ announces new QE! .

    * Ding, Dong QE is Dead, for now that is! .

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-31-2014
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  • Americans Even More Pessimistic Ahead of Elections

    We cover a lot of ground in today's E-Letter. We begin with the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll which found that the Republicans have risen to an 11-point lead among “likely voters.” That’s up from only a 5-point lead a week earlier. Some 52% of likely voters want a Republican-led Congress, while 41% favor Democratic control.

    Voters’ excitement about the campaign hasn’t increased as Election Day approaches, defying the trend in recent years. The share of voters who see the country on the “wrong track” has reached the highest level ever in a midterm election year, at 65%,versus only 25% who believe the country is moving in the "right direction." With so many disillusioned voters out there, we could be in for a surprise on Election Day.

    The same WSJ/NBC poll found support rising for the use of US ground forces to fight the Islamic State terrorists. Some 35% in the new survey said military action against the group should be limited to air strikes, with 41% saying it should include combat troops as well. A month earlier, some 40% called for airstrikes only, with only 34% saying the US should use combat troops as well as air strikes.

    Recently, President Obama has been making some flowery speeches about how the economy is doing just great. To rebut the president's argument, I offer over 20 reasons why the economy is nowhere near as healthy as he claims. The American people know this, and it could have a big effect on the elections next Tuesday.

    The Fed Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow. There has been talk that in light of the recent stock market meltdown, the Fed might decide to continue its QE bond buying program a little longer. I don't buy it, especially now that the stock markets have mostly recovered. I expect the FOMC will vote to end QE tomorrow.

    On Thursday morning, we get the first look at 3Q Gross Domestic Product. The pre-report consensus for the advance GDP report is 3% (annual rate), following the 4.6% rise in the 2Q.

    In my blog on Thursday, I will analyze the Fed's latest decision on QE and share my thoughts on the GDP report. If you haven't subscribed to my free weekly blog, CLICK HERE.

    Finally, Debi and I went to New York City recently to visit the 911 Memorial and Museum. Let me just say that they were both incredible! I have more details at the end of today's letter.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-29-2014
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  • Hy Minsky For A Wednesday Chat

    In This Issue.

    * Dollar rebounds overnight.

    * RBA Dep. Dawg, fears ZIRP!.

    * Bank of Canada meets today .

    * SNB to defend cross rate.

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-22-2014
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  • The Flat Debt Society

    Since at least the beginning of 2006, the most asked question I get after a speech is “Do you think we will have inflation or deflation?” In an attempt at humor, my answer has been “Yes.” I go on to try to explain that we are in a deflationary environment, but eventually we will see inflation. When QE1 was announced, there were many pundits (none of the Keynesian variety) who immediately said the risk was for significant inflation, and there were even those (like Peter Schiff) who talked of hyperinflation and the demise of the dollar. Interest rates would rise, and US government bonds would collapse.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 10-22-2014
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  • Retirement: How To Avoid Outliving Your Savings

    With over 10,000 Baby Boomers retiring every day, a pattern that will continue for the next 20 years, retirement savings continues to be one of the most important issues of our day. With 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 – the “Baby Boom Generation” – saving enough for retirement is critically important.

    Unfortunately, study after study continues to find that most older adults have not saved nearly enough for their retirement, especially considering that we are living longer due to medical advances and taking better care of ourselves.

    Today, we’ll start by looking at some recent data on retirement saving and how this remains a huge problem for most Americans We’ll also look into why it is that many people overspend in retirement and get into trouble. Following that discussion, we will look at some ways to make sure that you don’t outlive your savings.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-21-2014
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