Blogs

  • Casson Media Group Expands into Investment Banking

    Casson Media Group, Inc. (CMG) a leading provider of investment marketing services, has expanded into a full-service boutique Investment Bank. CMG now offers a comprehensive range of services to assist privately held small to medium sized companies acquire...
  • Seasonality Is Out of Season

    A “rally” attempt is underway. Stocks are continuing to rebound and all is well with the World? Or is it? With each passing day, the United States plummets deeper and deeper into a “black hole” of debt, of which it will be almost...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 02-03-2016
  • Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy

    Whew – January is finally over! Up until the last week or so, the downside carnage in January was the worst New Year’s stock market start in history. Thanks to last week’s rebound, it was only the worst New Year’s start since January of 2009 when the Great Recession was unfolding. Still, it was a hair-raising month for stock investors. And no one knows if the damage is over.

    There are many theories as to why equity markets around the world suddenly plummeted in January. I have written about several of them in the last couple of weeks. Most market commentators, including yours truly, have pointed to concerns about China’s economy, the collapse in oil/commodity prices, the strong US dollar, Fed interest rate hikes, etc., etc. as the likely causes for the January implosion.

    Rather than continue that discussion today, I want to point out a milestone that was reached with the end of 2015 and last Friday’s 4Q GDP report – and this milestone was not a good one. With 2015 behind us, it has been a decade since we have seen 3% yearly growth in the economy. The last year we had 3% growth was 2005. Call it America’s “Lost Decade.”

    Near the end of today’s letter, I will make some suggestions on how we could stimulate our now moribund economy – starting with a significant corporate income tax cut for businesses large and small. Republicans complain that they can’t override President Obama’s veto, so they do nothing. Yet with the economy now growing by less than 1%, I think the GOP would be surprised at how much support they could get from Democrats, especially in an election year.

    Before we get to that discussion, let’s take a look at last Friday’s GDP report for the 4Q. The advance report came in lower than expected with growth of only 0.7% for the final three months of last year. The sharply lower 4Q reading suggests yet another year of weak economic growth. And there is now a controversy over how much the economy expanded last year, which I will explain as we go along.

    And finally, I am very excited to announce our latest Special Report: UNDERSTANDING & MAXIMIZING YOUR 401(K). We have worked long and hard on this Report to help our many clients and readers not only understand how their 401(k)s work, but also how to maximize their benefits. If you have a 401(k), you definitely want to download our FREE Special Report.

    There’s a lot to cover in today’s E-Letter, so let’s get started.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-02-2016
    Filed under: , ,
  • If You Have A Sweet Tooth For Trading Its Pay Day!

    On Wednesday Jan 27 th I wrote an article that gave you a picture perfect trade setup. The trade is on sugar or the SGG sugar ETF. As of this writing sugar is now over 10% in our favor from the original entry and trading at short term support. This is...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-29-2016
  • Know Where The Next Market Top Or Bottom Is For SP500 Index

    IMPORTANT: 1. Make sure to have 24 hour trading showing so you see pre and post market trading. 2. Be sure to turn off any price spike filters, you want to see these random price spikes 3. Some data feeds filter out random spikes, so if you can’t...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-22-2016
  • How To Know Where The Next Market Top Or Bottom Is For SP500 Index

    IMPORTANT: 1. Make sure to have 24 hour trading showing so you see pre and post market trading. 2. Be sure to turn off any price spike filters, you want to see these random price spikes 3. Some data feeds filter out random spikes, so if you can’t...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-22-2016
  • Stock Markets Plunge, Concerns Abound… Recession?

    The first half of January 2016 has been the worst New Year’s opening for the US stock markets in history. Yet nothing much has changed economically since the end of last year. So why is the Dow Jones down 8.24%, the S&P 500 down 8.00% and the Nasdaq down 10.36% in just the first two weeks or so of the New Year? The answer is not yet clear.

    According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, if US stocks move lower in January, that means a down year for equities 75% of the time. While January is not over yet, it’s hard to imagine that stocks could close up for the month. So are we looking at the first down year for US stocks since 2008? Time will tell, but it sure looks that way.

    Questions abound. Did the Fed make a huge mistake by raising short-term rates by a mere 0.25% in December? Did news that China’s economy grew at only around 6% last year and may be slowing more this year upset the global apple cart? Are plunging oil prices really a bad thing?  Is a new global recession just around the corner? Should we be preparing for a new recession here in the US this year?

    These are the questions everyone is asking in the wake of the plunging stock market prices we have seen from the beginning of 2016. It is true that the current economic recovery which began in 2009 is the weakest in more than a half century, but this is nothing new. Rather than negative growth, GDP has expanded only by about 2% since Obama took office.

    Yet the Fed’s latest estimate of 4Q GDP growth has now fallen from 2.0% on December 17 to only 0.6% in the latest GDPNow estimate in the second week of January. This economy is losing momentum fast. The risks of a recession this year are quickly increasing. This may help explain why equities are tanking so far this year.

    There’s so much to talk about today, I’m not sure where to start. Let’s begin with the case for a recession this year, both globally and here at home.

    We’ll end on a positive note from Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, who suggests that this latest downward market correction may be over before too long. Let’s get started.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 01-22-2016
    Filed under: ,
  • Technical Evidence Indicates Major Price Movement Just Getting Started!

    Technical Evidence Indicates Major Price Movement Just Getting Started! Stocks around the globe were pummeled again last week. This is no surprise to our subscribers as our predictive trend analytics model gave us clear technical evidence that important...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 01-19-2016
  • Stocks Plunge Most On Record Last Week, Oil Down 10%

    In the first week of 2016, US stocks plunged by more than in any other first week of January since records have been kept (before 1900). The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell over 1,000 points from 17,591 at the close on December 31 to 16,519 at the close last Friday – a loss of over 6% in one week.

    The S&P 500 Index shed over 100 points from 2043.7 at the close on December 31 to 1922.0 at the close last Friday – a loss of 6.0% in one week. The Nasdaq Composite lost 7.3% during the worst first week of January on record.

    Most global stock markets were hit with similar losses or even worse in some cases. Investors around the world were stunned and are wondering what happened in the worst New Year’s  week in history for share prices – and worry if more pain is to follow.

    The financial media maintained that the carnage was caused primarily due to new economic data out of China, which was worse than expected. I will get into that as we go along today, but the rout was due to more than just disappointing Chinese data.

    The collapse in crude oil prices since mid-2014 is also becoming a serious global concern for reasons I will outline below. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude has collapsed over 70% since mid-2014 from near $105 per barrel to below $33 a barrel as of last Friday’s close. It fell 10% last week alone and is down so far this week.

    While sharply lower gasoline and energy prices are a boon to consumers, there are now serious concerns about sovereign debt defaults in numerous oil producing countries. In addition, there are growing fears of global deflation as a result of collapsing oil and other commodity prices. I will tell you why below.

    Yet before we get into the complicated issues raised above, let’s take a few moments to discuss last Friday’s stronger than expected unemployment report for December.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 01-13-2016
    Filed under: , , ,
  • When Will They Bottom? Oil, SP500, then Exxon Mobil

    A full blown bear market in energy resources and energy stocks has been underway since mid-2014. History shows that the price of crude oil typically bottoms before the broad stock market. And oil related stocks bottom at the same time or later than the...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 12-28-2015
  • A Sweet Trade Setup for The Holiday Season – ‘Tis the Season!

    Before I dig into the nitty gritty of this potentially sweet trade setup, I would like to first wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday! Being from Canada I’m very lucky to be able to spend quality time with my family for the next month...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 12-17-2015
  • Fed Set To Pull Trigger Tomorrow - A Good Thing Or Bad?

    The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets US monetary policy convened in Washington this morning for its last meeting of 2015. It is widely expected that the Committee will vote to hike the key Fed Funds rate for the first time in almost a decade before the meeting concludes tomorrow.

    The FOMC slashed the Fed Funds rate from 5.25% in late 2007 to near zero by late 2008 during the financial crisis and recession. It has kept the key lending rate at 0.00% to 0.25% ever since in an effort to stimulate the economy, in addition to buying an unprecedented $3.7 trillion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in a process known as “quantitative easing" or QE.

    It is not entirely certain that the FOMC will hike the Fed Funds rate tomorrow, but that is the prevailing consensus. Based on the minutes from the last FOMC meeting in late October, which were released on November 18, it is clear that Fed Chair Janet Yellen has a majority of FOMC voting members ready to support a rate hike if she chooses to do so.

    It is also not entirely clear how much the Committee might raise the Fed Funds rate should it decide to enact “lift-off” tomorrow. The prevailing consensus is that the first rate hike would be only 25 basis points (0.25%), but the Fed has provided very limited guidance as to the size of the expected increase. Assuming the rate hike is only 25 bips, the other question is from where – the Fed Funds rate is currently just under 0.15%.

    There are strong arguments on both sides of the lift-off issue. Many believe the Fed has already waited way too long to start normalizing interest rates and are adamant that lift-off should begin tomorrow. Many others, however, believe that the economic recovery is still too weak and the Fed should delay lift-off until sometime next year at the earliest.

    It is these two arguments that we will discuss today, ahead of tomorrow’s key decision. But before we get to that discussion, let’s do a quick review of the makeup of the Fed Open Market Committee, the most powerful monetary policy body in the world.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 12-15-2015
    Filed under: , ,
  • Are Low Crude Oil Prices a “Boom Or A Curse” For The World Economy?

    The energy markets are tanking and are at levels that have not been seen since “The Recession” of 2009. Opinions are divided on the effects of the fall. Some say it is good for consumers, whereas, others say it is bad for the global economy...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 12-12-2015
  • Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

    I’m going to offer something a little different in this week’s Outside the Box. Nate Silver has consistently been one of the best political analysts of the past 12 years. I wasn’t terribly enamored of his move from the New York Times to ESPN – to go back to covering sports rather than politics – but he still covers politics over at 538.

    ...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 12-11-2015
    Filed under: , ,
  • RBNZ Cuts, But Could It Be The Last One?

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies are mixed this morning.

    * Euro's rise above $1.10 interrupted by France..

    * Chuck gives out two Gold Stars!

    * And Grant Williams on A TTT!

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 12-11-2015
    Filed under: ,
1 2 3 4 5 Next > ... Last »