Blogs

  • Fed’s Janet Yellen To Continue Punishing Savers

    New revelations have suggested that our new Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, may be the most liberal person to ever hold the highest monetary office in the world. This news comes after a recent extended interview Ms. Yellen did with The New Yorker Magazine and her testimony before Congress earlier this month.

    Today we’ll look into these revelations about Ms. Yellen and ponder what they might mean for Fed monetary policy going forward. Chair Yellen made it clear before Congress that she is quite willing to keep the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) in place considerably longer than most forecasters have been thinking. That will continue to punish savers and those on fixed incomes.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-29-2014
  • The Next Big Emerging Market: Saudi Arabia

    As the son of a poor dirt farmer, I never cease to be amazed by all the places in the world that my research takes me to. About the only place I've never traveled to is the Middle East ... but that may change soon. Saudi Arabia is the Middle East's...
    Posted to Uncommon Wisdom by Tony Sagami on 07-29-2014
  • We’re Ready to Profit in the Coming Correction—Are You?

    By Laurynas Vegys, Research Analyst Sometimes I see an important economic or geopolitical event in screaming headlines and think: “That’s bullish for gold.” Or: “That’s bad news for copper.” But then metals prices move...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 07-29-2014
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  • Counting Eggs Before They Are Hatched.

    In This Issue.

    * Dollar holds a soft bias to buy.

    * Renminbi, S$ and Gold the only winners today.

    * Looking for better times in Canada.

    * Geopolitical Risks to return? ..

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 07-29-2014
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  • Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box

    Last week we took a deep dive into how the concept of GDP (gross domestic product) came about. We looked at some of the controversies surrounding GDP statistics that we use to measure the growth of the economy, and we noted that the GDP tool seems designed to reflect and serve an economic theory (Keynesianism) that prefers to focus on the demand side of economic activity. If your measurement of the growth of the economy is entirely defined by final consumption (that is, consumer spending) and government spending, then if you want to try to improve growth you are left with just two policy dials to adjust..

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-28-2014
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  • Geopolitics and Markets

    Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-25-2014
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  • Algorithmic Trading with Market Sentiment

    Algorithmic trading which is also known as automated trading has changed the way I trade and invest dramatically. As you know trading is extremely difficult to be consistently profitable in. The #1 reason individuals fail is because they struggle with...
  • Economic Outlook Dimming, Yet Fed Plans Rate Hikes

    The mainstream media was largely successful in convincing the public that the dreadful 1Q GDP number (-2.9%) was the result of the bitter winter in January and February. The media spin was that the economy would snap back strongly in the 2Q with growth of 4%, 5% or even 6%. While there were some encouraging economic reports in April, May and early June, the economy now appears to be losing momentum again.

    Predictions of 4-5% GDP growth in the 2Q have faded. A new Wall Street Journal poll last week found that forecasters on average expect 2Q GDP growth of only 3.1%, down from a 3.5% estimate a month ago. The same poll of 48 forecasters now expects the economy to grow by only 1.6% for all of 2014, down from 2.8% forecast earlier this year.

    Despite this dimming economic outlook, the media is now concerned that the Fed may begin raising interest rates sooner rather than later, and that the expected series of rate hikes will happen more rapidly than previously expected. But is there any real evidence that Janet Yellen and the Fed have changed their plans? I don’t think so. I’ll tell you why as we go along.

    Finally, we’ll round-out today’s discussion by looking at the latest Gallup poll that gauges what most Americans consider to be our biggest problems. For most of this year, Americans cited the economy as our biggest problem. However, in the latest poll a new concern has jumped to the top of the list and for good reason: Immigration/Illegal Aliens.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-22-2014
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  • Fed’s QE Ending in October: A Success or Failure?

    The Fed confirmed last week what we all had expected: it will end its massive QE bond buying program by the end of October. No surprise there. The question is, was QE a success, a failure or somewhere in between? Some argue that without QE the economy...
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  • The TRUTH about China’s Massive Gold Hoard

    By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst I don’t want to say that mainstream analysts are stupid when it comes to China’s gold habits, but I did look up how to say that word in Chinese… One report claims, for example, that gold...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 07-22-2014
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  • Was There a Global Holiday I Didn't Know About.

    In This Issue.

    * Chicago Fed

    * China and Switzerland agree

    * BRICS

    * Basis points

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    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 07-22-2014
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  • Hoisington Investment Management: Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2014

    This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for our Quarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury yields. That’s an important relationship, because long-term interest rates above nominal GDP growth (as they are now) tend to retard economic activity and vice versa.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-18-2014
  • U.S. Now World’s Largest Producer of Oil & Gas

    Recent reports have confirmed that the US is now the world’s largest producer of crude oil with output exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the 1Q of this year. This surpasses the daily oil production of Russia and Saudi Arabia. This is the first time in over 40 years that the US has once again become the largest producer of oil in the world – and this is despite the Obama administration’s continued ban on new drilling for oil in our coastal waterways. Oil extraction is soaring at shale formations in Texas and North Dakota as companies split rock formations believed to contain oil using high-pressure liquids, a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” This oil boom has dramatically lowered petroleum imports into America. The share of US fuel consumption met by imports is down from 60% in 2005 to 33% in 2013 and is expected to fall to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest since 1970. I will discuss the latest good news in detail as we go along today.

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    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 07-15-2014
  • Rock Concerts, and How to Find On-Sale Stocks to Fuel a Rock-Star Retirement

    By Dennis Miller Have you ever wondered what really happens behind the scenes at a rock concert? My good friend Stew is a top audio engineer—you know, the guy who wears thousand-dollar headphones and stands below the stage manning dials at rock...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 07-10-2014
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  • Poverty Matters for Capitalists

    Every US recession that I can recall was preceded by a fall in long rates, and I doubt the next will be much different. As such, do not expect the next US downturn to arise from the Federal Reserve pushing rates higher, an overvalued dollar or even mal-investments. Expect it to result from a decline in the income of the working poor. Early warning signs are likely to show up in the shopping aisles of stores such as Walmart, average driving miles, and the price of houses at the cheaper end of the market. I suspect the lesson that will eventually be learnt is that in a modern industrialized economy there are few worse things a central bank can do than deliberately attack the spending power of the poor.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-10-2014
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