Blogs

  • Best Opportunities Outside of North America

    Investors tend to focus on investment opportunities that are well known and also those which have been headline news for several months. This allows the investor to become familiar with main stream news which eventually leads to a comfort level that makes...
  • January Inflation Turns Negative - Is Deflation Upon Us?

    Consumer prices fell in January for the third straight month, while inflation over the past 12 months turned negative for the first time since 2009, largely because of cheaper gasoline. In January, the Consumer Price Index sank by a seasonally-adjusted 0.7%, the biggest one-month drop since the end of 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

    The pace of inflation over the past 12 months, as measured by the CPI, fell to negative 0.1%, and it’s down sharply from 2.1% last summer shortly before crude prices collapsed. That’s the lowest annual rate since late 2009/early 2010. If this trend continues, we will fall into deflation.

    Deflation, not to be confused with disinflation, or a slowing rate of inflation, is dangerous because it reduces the supply of money and credit flowing through the economy, and it can create less demand for big-ticket items from cars to washing machines. At its worst, dwindling demand can lead to global depression.

    Many investors are celebrating the widely-held belief that lower inflation is good for stocks and higher inflation is bad. But, as is often the case, this conventional wisdom is misleading, if not plain wrong. A study by the by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that corporate earnings and inflation tend to move up and down together, generally speaking. So the idea that lower inflation is good for stocks may be dead wrong.

    But before we get into that discussion, let’s take a look at last Friday’s report on 4Q Gross Domestic Product, which was a disappointment. At the end of today’s E-Letter, I will comment on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate last week. And we will end with some thoughts on President Obama’s quest to reach a nuclear deal with Iran.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 03-03-2015
    Filed under: ,
  • Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide

    There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in the fed funds rate will indeed change a great deal of economics all over the world.

    ...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 03-03-2015
    Filed under: , , ,
  • Investors Are About To Having A COW!

    The past year month has been flowing into risk on assets like US equities. And when money is flowing into one investment class there is typically an outflow in others. Commodities in general have been beaten up bad but there is some money to be made here...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 03-02-2015
  • Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments

    Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants. So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 02-25-2015
  • Debt Be Not Proud

    Kicking the debt relief can down the road is going to require a great deal of dexterity. The Greeks haven’t helped their cause with their abysmal record of avoiding taxes and their rampant, all-too-easily-observed government corruption, including significant public overemployment.

    ...
    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-25-2015
    Filed under: ,
  • U.S. Supreme Court - 2015 Will Be A Blockbuster Year

    The Supreme Court is poised for a blockbuster year in 2015 – and the list of high-profile cases could keep growing. Already, the Court is set to rule in a key case that threatens to wreak havoc on Obamacare. In addition, the justices will consider important cases regarding religious freedom, free speech, and limits on political fundraising.

    That mix of cases poses big risks for liberals, who were caught off guard by the Court’s willingness/enthusiasm to take on another high-stakes Obamacare battle much sooner than expected. Yet conservatives have a lot on the line as well. Under mounting pressure, the High Court agreed to hear a landmark the case on same-sex marriage once again – one that could clear the way for same-sex couples to legally marry in every state.

    We will take a look today at the most high-profile cases that the Supreme Court will hear this year, and what lies at stake in each of them. I wish Americans paid more attention to the Highest Court in the land.

    Before we get into that discussion, let’s take a look at the minutes from the most recent Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 27-28. Those minutes revealed that several members on the Committee have new concerns about the economic recovery, especially in light of falling inflation and the rising US dollar. While the minutes didn’t say so specifically, it is clear that several members of the Committee now question whether short-term interest rates should be raised at all this year.

    Finally, we’ll look at the federal court decision in Texas last week that stopped President Obama’s executive action on immigration dead in its tracks, at least for now. This is an interesting development, and it remains to be seen if Obama can get this decision reversed.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-24-2015
    Filed under:
  • Kicking The Can Down The Road.

    In This Issue.

    * Traders back on scent of rate hike.

    * Oil is stuck in tight range.

    * Greece has homework assignment!.

    * Happy Late Birthday to George Washington!

    ...
    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 02-24-2015
    Filed under: ,
  • Safety in Numbers, Protection in Options

    By Andrey Dashkov If you want to fail as an investor, the possibilities are endless. Buying stocks on a whim, holding on to the losers for too long, and dumping winners too soon are just a few ways to start. Options, like anything else, can cost you money...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 02-24-2015
    Filed under:
  • Inflation Is Plunging Globally – Is Deflation Next?

    In my February 10 E-Letter , I focused on how deflation is spreading around the world, first in Japan since the 1990s and more recently in Europe, which saw inflation go negative in December of last year – for the first time in decades. This is...
    Filed under: ,
  • What Uber Could Teach the American Economy

    The twentieth century was a good time for middle America. A lot of the new manufacturing jobs paid reasonable middle-class wages. Like me, many of you grew up in those middle-class homes (though mine was decidedly on the lower end of the scale). It was a good life and a great time to grow up.

    ...
    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-23-2015
    Filed under: ,
  • His Secret To Day Trading Gold

    It does not matter what your specialty is for trading is we all have our own little trading secrets to help use better time our trades. While many day traders focus on individual stocks like aapl, goog, tsla etc… I like to focus on day trading...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 02-23-2015
  • 2015 Stock Market Forecast And Your Trading Plan

    US Stock Market On The Verge Of Exciting Times The S&P 500 stock market has been under strong rotation since mid-2014. Rotation in the stock market is when the trend changes direction from an uptrend to a downtrend or vice versa. But the really exciting...
  • The Most Successful Public Company In The World

    Today we focus on the most successful and profitable company in the entire world. It just happens to be an American company, but many of us have never heard of it. If you had invested $1 in this company in 1968, your investment would have soared to $6,638 at the end of last year. I think you’ll be surprised to see which company this is.

    Following that discussion, I will address the growing trend of “socially-responsible” investing. That is, not investing in so-called “sin” stocks such as tobacco, alcohol, gambling, firearms, etc. A new report from Credit Suisse points out that there is a cost associated with socially-responsible investing – in the form of lower performance returns.

    I bring this to your attention, not in an attempt to discourage it, but to point out that there is a cost involved in “politically-correct” investing. In my 35+ years in the financial business, I have never seen an analysis that compares socially-responsible investing to investing in so-called sin stocks. I think you’ll find it very interesting.

    But before we jump into those topics, I want to briefly revisit the likelihood that the Federal Communications Commission, under orders from President Obama, will vote a week from Thursday to take control of our precious Internet. It now looks inevitable that the federal government will enact what may prove to be one of the largest power grabs in history!

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-17-2015
    Filed under: ,
  • Deflation Is Spreading In Europe – Is America Next?

    US consumer prices fell in December by the largest amount in six years, reflecting another big monthly decline in gas prices and providing further evidence of falling inflation pressures. The Labor Department said Friday that its Consumer Price Index dropped 0.4% in December, the largest one-month drop since December 2008.

    Consumer prices also fell in the Eurozone in December by 0.2% for the first time in over five years. Given that consumer prices in the US and Europe went negative in December, we are hearing a lot more talk about deflation – which is a general decrease in prices for goods and services.

    A general decline in prices may sound good on paper but when deflation takes hold, it can wreak havoc on the economy. That’s because consumers and businesses have an incentive to delay purchases and investment since prices are expected to fall further. Deflation strangles borrowers because their debts get harder to repay. Just ask Japan.

    With the growing concern about the threat of deflation, I am receiving more requests from clients and readers to address it. While I don’t think deflation will take hold in the US anytime soon, it is growing rapidly in parts of Europe, one of our largest trading partners, and elsewhere. So today, we will focus on deflation and the trouble with falling prices.

    Before we go there, I would like to discuss two important recent economic reports. The first is last Friday’s unemployment report for January which was widely hailed by the mainstream media. The other recent report we’ll look at is the January Consumer Confidence Index which surged higher than anyone expected.

    ...
    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 02-10-2015
    Filed under:
1 2 3 4 5 Next > ... Last »