• Blodget on Market History

    I remember the first time I walked into Henry Blodget’s new startup, Business Insider, back in 2009. Twelve fresh-faced kids were crammed into a room about the size of my bedroom, pounding away on laptops, creating a new destination website. He took me over to a corner; we sat down in front of a few cameras; and he began shooting question after question at me, later turning the session into a series of interviews.

    You walk into his office today and it’s still packed wall-to-wall with fresh-faced kids (the older I get the younger they look), but the offices are much larger, and it seemed to me last time that there had to be at least 150 people in them. But the interviews are still quick-paced, even if they’re now conducted in a special room, with upgraded equipment.

    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 10-09-2015
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  • Americans’ Trust In Government Hits New Low

    Today we’ll look at a couple of recent Gallup polls that should be interesting, regardless of your political stripe. Americans’ trust in the government to handle domestic problems has fallen to a new all-time low of just 38%. Americans are...
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  • Silver Begins To Show Signs Of A Shortage.

    In This Issue.

    * Petrol Currencies up.

    * Global Growth currencies down.

    * FOMC meeting minutes today. UGH!

    * Euro pops over 1.13 briefly .

    Posted to Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler on 10-08-2015
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  • The Real Reason for the Refugee Crisis You Won’t Hear About in the Media

    By Nick Giambruno There’s a meme going around that the refugee crisis in Europe (the largest since World War II) is part of a secret plot to subvert the West. I completely understand why the locals in any country wouldn’t be happy about waves...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 10-08-2015
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  • Recession Watch

    I think it’s pretty much a given that we’re in for a cyclical bear market in the coming quarters. The question is, will it be 1998 or 2001/2007? Will the recovery look V-shaped, or will it drag out? Remember, there is always a recovery. But at the same time, there is always a recession out in front of us; and that fact of life is what makes for long and difficult recoveries, not to mention very deep bear markets.

    The problem is that our most reliable indicator for a recession is no longer available to us. The Federal Reserve did a study, which has been replicated. They looked at 26 indicators with regard to their reliability in predicting a recession. There was only one that was accurate all the time, and that was an inverted yield curve of a particular length and depth. Interestingly, it worked almost a year in advance. The inverted yield curve indicator worked very well the last two recessions; but now, with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at the zero bound, it is simply impossible to get a negative yield curve.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 10-07-2015
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  • September Jobs & Manufacturing Reports Disappoint Again

    As is becoming increasingly frequent, we will touch on several bases today, given that there’s so much going on these days. (Speaking of bases, How ‘bout them Texas Rangers!!) Hitting several topics in a single E-Letter makes it more interesting and fast-paced for me, and I hope the same is true for you. After all, YOU are what this is all about. That’s why I always value your input, positive or negative, so much.

    Today, we’ll start with the latest economic reports. I wish I could tell you they were encouraging – most were not. There was last Friday’s disappointing unemployment report for September – which was below expectations for the second month in a row. Then there was last Thursday’s decidedly downbeat report on US manufacturing, which was yet another big disappointment.

    These two negative reports have most Fed-watchers very confident now that there will not be a rate hike this year. Most now believe that “lift-off” won’t happen until early 2016. Yet the Fed may fear it will lose its credibility if it doesn’t make at least one move this year. So expect this debate to continue at least until December 17 when we will know for sure.

    Last Wednesday, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned that there are new reasons to be concerned about the global economy, and emerging economies in particular. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde issued the latest warning, along with another call for the US Fed to delay the first rate hike until next year. But does the Fed care what she thinks? Probably not.

    Finally, I have just completed a new SPECIAL REPORT: Seven Risk Factors That Could Drive the Markets Lower. Back in March and April, I saw the storm clouds gathering on the horizon and warned my readers to reduce their long-only (buy-and-hold) positions in stocks and equity funds.

    Still, most investors don’t understand why this six year-old bull market seems to have run off the tracks. In this new Special Report, I discuss in detail the unique combination of risk factors that are weighing on the markets today and may continue to do so.

    Best of all, I offer advice on what you can do to protect yourself should the latest market downturn continue. If you are looking for some clarity in this crazy market and some advice on how to protect your portfolio, be sure to download my latest FREE SPECIAL REPORT at the end of today’s E-Letter.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 10-07-2015
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  • Financial Repression – Governments boost their coffers and hold down interest rates

    Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said the government will run out of money to pay its bills sooner than previously thought around November 5, 2015. Lacking sufficient cash, it would be impossible for the United States of America to meet all of its obligations...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 10-05-2015
  • Balloons in Search of Needles

    I love waterfalls. I’ve seen some of the world’s best, and they always have an impact. The big ones leave me awestruck at nature’s power. It was about 20 years ago that I did a boat trip on the upper Zambezi, ending at Victoria Falls. Such a placid river, full of game and hippopotamuses (and the occasional croc); and then you begin to hear the roar of the falls from miles away. Unbelievably majestic. From there the Zambezi River turns into a whitewater rafting dream, offering numerous class 5 thrills. Of course, you wouldn’t want to run them without a serious professional at the helm. When you’re looking at an 8-foot-high wall of water in front of you that you are going to have to go up (because it’s in the way); well, let’s just say it’s a rush.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-30-2015
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  • The Economy Surges Higher, But Is It For Real?

    Today we look at last Friday’s better than expected final report on 2Q GDP, which was revised from 3.7% to 3.9%. Best of all, this increase was largely due to increased consumer spending which accounts for almost 70% of GDP. Following the paltry 0.6% increase in GDP in the 1Q, this means the economy grew by 2.25% in the first half of this year.

    While a 3.9% jump in economic growth in the 2Q was welcome news, there is a growing consensus that such reports from the government may not be remotely accurate. The problem is, many agree, that the government’s “seasonal adjustments” to the monthly and quarterly data have gotten out of control, and the numbers reported are no longer reliable. We’ll talk about this below.

    Next, we’ll look into what many are calling a “flip-flop” on the part of Fed Chair Janet Yellen in the last two weeks on the subject of when short-term interest rates are likely to be raised. At the Fed’s latest policy meeting on September 17, they decided to postpone the first rate hike in nearly a decade, seemingly indefinitely. But then last Thursday, Yellen said lift-off will happen before the end of this year, and this sparked the latest selloff in the equity markets. So, what gives?

    I will close today with a few thoughts about the SuperMoon, BloodMoon and lunar eclipse we saw on Sunday night. I hope you got to view it.

    And finally, our latest WEBINAR with ZEGA Financial is now available for viewing on our website. ZEGA’s strategy for using options is one of the most interesting I have ever seen.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 09-29-2015
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  • Germany’s Immigration Challenge

    This immigration crisis in Europe is a big deal, and it’s a bigger deal for Germany than for any other European country. Germany is directly in the firing line, both geographically and in terms of how many of the migrants want to settle there. Nearly 40% of migrants choose Germany as their preferred final destination, while the only other nation that is chosen by more than 10% of migrants is Hungary, at 18%.

    Daniel Stelter is a very wired German economist and business thinker. He wrote to me a couple days ago, said he had read my remarks on Germany and the immigration crisis in last week’s Thoughts from the Frontline, and recommended to my attention a couple of articles he had just written on the issue. They are today’s Outside the Box.

    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 09-25-2015
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  • On The Fed, Deflation, Government Shutdown & The Moon

    Once again this week, we touch on a variety of topics that piqued my interest over the last week. We begin with some further analysis of the Fed’s controversial decision to hold interest rates near zero last Thursday. While this was the topic of my Blog last Thursday, I have more analysis today that I think you’ll find interesting.

    One thing I conclude from the Fed’s decision last week is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a growing number of her colleagues are worried about deflation spreading to the US. Since most Americans living today have never experienced a prolonged period of deflation, we should talk about it at least briefly to understand why falling prices are bad for the economy.

    Next, as much as I hate to bring it up, we could be facing yet another government shutdown at the end of this month. Fiscal Year 2015 ends one week from tomorrow, and Congress has not passed a budget for FY2016. As a result, the government could effectively shut down starting on October 1. Here we go again.

    From there, we look at a new report which finds that the $13 trillion in government “debt held by the public” equals a record $107,000 per US household. Yet if we include all of our national debt of $18.4 trillion, that number goes up to over $150,000 per household.

    Finally, a rare combination of celestial events will grace the night sky later this month. NASA says a SuperMoon, a BloodMoon and a lunar eclipse will take place on the night of September 27, this coming Sunday. This rare event has happened only five times since 1900, most recently in 1982, and there won't be another one until 2033. Read about it at the end of today’s E-Letter so that you won’t miss it this Sunday night.

    Posted to Forecasts & Trends by Gary D. Halbert on 09-22-2015
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  • Will the FED Ever Pull The Trigger Under The Obama Administration? RE: Fixed Income Markets?

    “Liquidity crunch” is the watchword in the bond trading market that threatens to cause deep rifts in the financial market. The fixed income market in the U.S. finds itself suffering from the unintended consequence of injecting half a trillion...
    Posted to The Gold And Oil Guy by Chris Vermeulen on 09-22-2015
  • Merkel Opens the Gates

    It wasn’t a shock that the Federal Reserve did not raise rates. Even the most inside of insiders said the odds were at most 50-50. Those Wall Street Journal reporters who have an “inside ear” at the Federal Reserve all indicated there would be no rate increase. The IMF and the World Bank were pounding the table, declaring that it was inappropriate to raise rates now, and although most FOMC members give lip service to the fact that Federal Reserve policy is to be based solely on domestic considerations, global concerns may well have played a role in their decision.

    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-21-2015
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  • Would a Rate Hike Kill Us?

    As I write this today, I am awaiting the Fed’s decision on whether to hike the Fed Funds (“FF”) rate for the first time in almost a decade. The world is watching with what I would call unprecedented attention, but I don’t understand...
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  • Should You Worry That the Stock Market Just Formed a “Death Cross”?

    By Justin Spittler The world economy appears to be stalling… Yesterday, we got news that South Korea’s exports dropped 14.7% since last August...their largest decline since the financial crisis. It’s far worse than the 5.9% drop economists...
    Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 09-21-2015
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